No major readings above 1.00 and not too many below 0.70. In other words, not too much in terms of complacency nor fear. Per the Investors Intelligence Survey Bulls are up to 50% and Bears down to 23% a widening spread which has kept us somewhat cautious over the past week or two. During Fridays session both the VIX/VXN flamed out late session showing some hesitation at resistance.
Most Sectors continue to correct back with the market towards important 50 EMA and Uptrend Support Lines off our March Lows. We've included a chart of the Transports seen in our 6th chart below that more or less mirrors the Nasdaq, SP 500, Dow, QQQQ and Russell 2000 Charts seen below in that most key groups are now testing back to our important Uptrendlines off the March Lows and 50 EMA's. Most Commodities are testing the bottom of their respective Rising Wedge Patterns. The Oil Services Sector pulled back about $10 over the past week and is now also testing some major Support. The BKX/Financial Sector Chart put in a Doji today or hesitation candle right off our 50 EMA Support. Next week will be an interesting one to say the least with the battlelines drawn at our critical 50 EMA Supports.
The Week Ahead:
The week ahead is one the market may have to remember adversely for a very long time. The bulls are fighting for their bull market lives here. It would be extremely bearish if the market loses those 50 day exponential moving averages across the board. The key of course is doing this on a closing basis. There are the usual number of economic reports, all of which lately have come in poorly. We need to see a turn in that for the market to have much of a chance. Do keep in mind that a breach of the 50's on an intra day basis is meaningless. It's how we close. Also, you don't really take a breakdown seriously if we lose the 50's by a point or two. You need to see a breakdown and run down even lower to get true confirmation. I will be watching and updating for all of you of course. Nothing aggressive short or long until we get resolution folks. In fact mostly to all cash would be entirely acceptable which we have mostly been for the past week or two.
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