Analysts project it'll keep growing at a sturdy 5% pace, bringing the annual total to nearly $3.6 billion by the end of 2016 -- almost three times the $1.25 billion in revenue Diebold posted a decade ago. At this pace, analysts say the company's dividend could climb to $1.43 a share by the end of 2016. But I think this forecast might be a bit conservative, especially after the 8% EPS
growth rate projection.
Obviously, strong sales go a long way toward generating sufficient cash for dividends. And in Diebold's case, the lion's share of sales should continue to come from the financial self-service (FSS) division that produces ATMs. The FSS unit brought in roughly $2.2 billion, or about 80% of total revenue, in 2011.
Although domestic ATM sales have been strong, rising mainly among regional banks in the past couple of quarters, I believe overseas markets will account for most of the division's future revenue growth. China and India, in particular, should be excellent sources of growth for the next few years. Diebold is a major force in both markets, boasting more than 27,000 ATMs in India alone. Because ATMs are still far less prevalent in China and India than the United States, I see these two countries as much better growth opportunities.
The company has been doing significant business in Brazil, too. On Nov. 1, 2011, for example, Diebold announced the sale of 2,000 ATMs to Banco Santander Brazil (NYSE: BSBR)
, the third largest nongovernment-controlled bank in Brazil. A few months earlier, Caixa Economica Federal -- one of Brazil's leading government-owned banks -- placed an order with Diebold for 9,600 ATMs. This was one of the largest ATM purchases in history.
Risks to Consider: Diebold depends heavily on ATMs for revenue, so the company is very vulnerable to any slowdown in the ATM market. Action to Take -->
If you want a reliable dividend payer, then consider investing in Diebold Inc. How many companies can say they've increased their dividend nearly six decades straight -- or that they have a good chance of keeping such a streak going? Not many. Given its such a solid company, now looks like an excellent time to pick up some shares
and see your dividend payments increase for years to come.
-- Tim Begany
Disclosure: Neither Tim Begany nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.