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April In The Books - Pending Pipeline Strong For Future Reports
By: Noah Rosenblatt   Thursday, May 3, 2012 5:53 AM
Now, lets take a look at monthly new supply for Manhattan since 2008: This monthly new supply bar chart since 2008 should clearly show you how since late 2010 (red bar), Manhattan has seen less supply to come to market on a monthly basis for every month except February of 2012! In other words, current tight inventory conditions are a function of new supply trends for the past 18 months! This did not happen overnight. This is probably why buyers out there continue to bid, and bid aggressively, for quality product that comes to market at a reasonable price. Add in that equity markets recently reached a 4-year high and you don't have that fear & uncertainty that typically motivates a whole new class of sellers to list property for sale to either a) liquidate to raise $$, b) sell what is perceived as a near term depreciating asset, or c) sell out of general market fear. I'm not saying its party time again and prices are higher than peak in 2007, they are not, Im simply reporting on real-time production data and how we got here over the past few years. Price discovery on deals signed in April will likely become available between mid-June and September. Generally speaking, certainty and confidence are very important buy side characteristics that take years to shape, and that's exactly what happened to Manhattan property buyers over the last 3+ years. It is what it is, and I'll still be surprised if we can keep up this pace of producing over 1,000+ new deals signed as we head into June given tight inventory conditions and fewer new listings coming to market on a monthly basis. But, until anything changes the Manhattan market continues to experience a very active start to 2012 that will power strong Q2 and more likely, Q3 reports. Cheers!

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