Jul. 24--Boeing's share price fell sharply Wednesday after disappointing second-quarter earnings, despite firm assurances from management that profits will recover in the second half of the year and grow 20 percent more next year.

Wall Street analysts said what concerns them is not the immediate shortfall but the potential impact of the crisis in the airline industry, which is struggling with high oil prices.

"It's tough to imagine a scenario where Boeing's stock is constantly marching up when all the airlines are reporting big losses and deferring deliveries," said Rob Stallard, an analyst with Macquarie Capital investment bank.

Boeing delivery projections show the company this year should finally reclaim the production lead it lost to Airbus five years ago, and it projects airplane deliveries from its Puget Sound-area factories will continue to climb through 2010.

Yet as some of the world's airlines struggle to stay in business and others cut back service, doubts remain about the level of aircraft production in 2010 and beyond.

Stallard minimized the past quarter's problems as "short-term operating concerns that eventually will be fixed," and said the bigger issue is "the state of the cycle."

The cyclical demand for airplanes determines the amount of work at Boeing's factories. Chairman and Chief Executive Jim McNerney suggested the eight years of production backlog on the books of Boeing Commercial Airplanes will cushion it against declining demand but conceded concern over the airline outlook.

"Despite minimal impact on our business so far, we are concerned about the impact of energy prices on our customers," McNerney said in a conference call to discuss the earnings results. "We do expect that we could have more deferrals and some cancellations.

"Right now the demand for fuel-efficient new aircraft is still higher than what we can supply," he said. "We remain confident we will deliver the commercial airplanes in our guidance for 2008 and 2009 and that deliveries will be higher in 2010 due to 787 production ramping up."

Despite all the troubles of the airlines, that would mean the industry is still at least two years from peak airplane production.

From 441 jets last year, Boeing forecasts it will reach 475 to 480 deliveries this year, and between 500 and 505 deliveries in 2009. Airbus projects only 470 deliveries this year.

McNerney did not put a number on jet deliveries in 2010. Production could possibly reach the level last seen in 2001, with 525 airplanes delivered.

But if the airline crisis broadens, that delivery rate might be out of reach.