Amid Turmoil, Big G Still Making Dough: As Other Food Companies Feel the Pain of Rising Costs, General Mills is Chugging Along.
Saturday, September 06, 2008 6:59 PM
Symbols: C, CAG, DMND, GIS
(Source: Star Tribune, Minneapolis)trackingBy Matt Mckinney, Star Tribune, Minneapolis

Sep. 6--It seems only logical that a food company such as General Mills would suffer in this year of rising food and energy costs.

Just as it costs more to heat your home and stock your pantry, it costs Big G more to make a Cheerio and to ship it to market. And yet, except for a slide late last year that lasted halfway into January, General Mills stock has gone on a healthy tear, now trading at all-time highs around $67 a share.

The stock is what long-term investors dream of: a largely unblemished upward climb over decades.

And so far, the Golden Valley-based company has managed to avoid the pitfalls of other food companies. Last week, ConAgra Foods cut its earnings forecast to something slightly less than the June estimate of 26 to 28 cents a share. The reason: higher costs have shredded profit in the company's consumer foods segment, especially cooking oils, table spreads, frozen foods and popcorn. Shares slid 7 percent the day of the announcement.

And even Austin, Minn.-based Hormel Corp., which had managed to cope with rising corn and feed costs, finally succumbed to the high prices last month. Its stock is off 15 percent since mid-May.

Is General Mills, which reports first-quarter numbers Sept. 17, headed for its own hiccup? Analysts don't seem to think so.

The company holds the No. 1 or No. 2 position in a broad cross-section of shelf-stable and refrigerated and frozen food brands, with the top-selling dry dinner mixes, fruit snacks and refrigerated dough. It owns strong brands such as Wheaties, Cheerios, Nature Valley Granola Bars, Pillsbury, Yoplait and Progresso Soups. The company has also escaped some of the pain of the meat industry, where skyrocketing feed costs have made it nearly impossible to sell pork, beef and chicken at a profit.

And it's been buttressing strong growth at home with large jumps abroad. Its most recent fiscal year ended with sales of $13.65 billion, a 9.7 percent gain over the previous year. Earnings grew 13 percent, to $1.3 billion. And its international segment, although not the largest piece of the company, grew by 21 percent.

Citigroup, which has had a "buy" rating on General Mills shares since January, once again recommended the stock last month in a note covering some of the best performers in the food industry.

And Rick Shea, a former food company executive who runs Shea Marketing and Consulting in Chanhassen, said the company's struggles with ingredient costs and energy may be easing as commodity prices fall back from their highs.

Food companies can bat down costs in three ways, Shea said.


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