Oct. 3--EL PASO -- The home real estate market slipped in El Paso this year, but a booming population in the next 20 years bodes well for the future market here and for all of Texas, a Texas economist and real estate expert told El Paso Realtors on Thursday.

"If you're in the real estate business, the future looks bright. Over time, it's coming -- a lot of customers are coming," James Gaines, a research economist at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, said at the annual Greater El Paso Association Realtor Rally and trade show at the El Paso convention center Downtown.

El Paso County's population is projected to grow from around 730,000 now to more than 1.1 million by 2030, Gaines said. Texas, with a population of about 24 million now, is expected to add 13.6 million people to its population by 2030, he said.

Gaines also foresees inflation growing in coming years, which, he said, is good for the real estate industry because property and land are "hedges against inflation."

Patty Hawks, a Realtor for Century 21 Paul Todd in El Paso, said Gaines' outlook makes "things look good for Texas and El Paso." And while some people say the market has slowed here, she said, "I still see a lot of buyers out there."

Michael Bray, a Realtor for Prudential BKB in El Paso, said Gaines' presentation shows El Paso Realtors "have a good basis for our optimism."

Gaines said statistics show El Paso's real estate market has slowed this year.

Home sales were down 31 percent through

August compared with the same period a year ago. El Paso has a 12-month supply of homes on the market now, almost double the normal inventory, he said. But real estate markets in El Paso and the rest of Texas have not seen the dramatic declines seen in many other parts of the country, he said.

Single-family building permits were down 2.7 percent through August compared with a year ago. But El Paso has not seen home construction dive as has been the case in other parts of Texas and throughout the United States, Gaines said.

The economist sees the Texas economy continuing to outperform the national economy next year. But after the first of the year, "all bets are off" until the direction of a new president and new Congress is seen, Gaines said. The energy industry, which has helped the Texas economy stay strong this year, is one of the industries expected to be targeted for changes by a new Congress, he said.

Vic Kolenc may be reached at vkolenc@elpasotimes.com; 546-6421.

For more information: www.reccenter.tamu.edu.

Economic outlook Other economic insights from James Gaines, a research economist at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, who spoke to El Paso Realtors Thursday: --The nation's economy in 2009 will be marked by high inflation, negative economic growth, job losses, low interest rates, and a possible stock market rally.

--Inflation will jump up as the national economy recovers. In the long term, inflation could return to levels seen in the 1979-1981 period.

--Many banks in the United States are "running low on capital" and don't have money to lend. That has the country's businesses and capital markets on hold.

--The proposed $700 billion financial industry bailout is probably needed, but "no one knows if it will work. It's a typical government reaction to a problem: Throw money at it."

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