Oct. 5--The governor's election next month will end one Tar Heel political curse. The question is: which one?

Republican Pat McCrory is fighting the dreaded Charlotte mayor's curse. Democrat Beverly Perdue is battling the more obscure lieutenant governor's curse.

The Charlotte mayor's curse is perhaps better known. A series of mayors have left the friendly confines of Charlotte to head north on Interstate 85 and never be heard from again, at least politically.

In 1984, Eddie Knox thought he would be the next governor. In 1992, Sue Myrick thought she would be the state's first woman senator. In 1990 and 1996, Harvey Gantt thought he would be the South's first modern African-American senator. And Richard Vinroot thought he would be North Carolina's tallest governor in 1996. And in 2000. And again in 2004.

They all now reside in the Queen City's Retirement Home for Ex-Mayors. (Except Myrick, who lowered her sights and was elected to the U.S. House.)

Can McCrory, the GOP candidate for governor, escape the curse? Early polling suggests that McCrory is doing well, piling up strong support in Charlotte to compensate for any bias elsewhere against big cities.

But Perdue has been busy playing the Charlotte card, portraying McCrory as the big-city mayor more interested in helping metropolitan areas.

There are several reasons for the Charlotte curse. There remains a strain of populism, particularly in Eastern North Carolina, that includes suspicion of the big bankers and power company executives in the state's largest city.

Charlotte politics is bean bag compared with state politics, and Charlotte mayors tend to underestimate the difficulty of making the transition.

The office of mayor has rarely been a good steppingstone in Tar Heel politics. When has the mayor of any North Carolina city -- Raleigh, Charlotte, Greensboro, Winston-Salem or Durham -- won statewide office?

North Carolina does not produce Rudy Giulianis or Ed Rendells because our cities are not large and because we have institutionally weak mayors under council-manager forms of government.

Lieutenant governors have fared only a little better than Charlotte mayors.

Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker lost the Democratic primary for governor in 2000. Lt. Gov. Jim Gardner lost the governor's race in 1992. Lt. Gov. Bob Jordan lost the governor's race in 1988. Lt. Gov. Jimmy Green lost the Democratic primary for governor in 1984, and Lt. Gov. Pat Taylor lost the Democratic primary for governor in 1972.

There was a time when lieutenant governors could actually be elected governor -- Lt. Gov. Bob Scott was in 1968 and Lt. Gov. Jim Hunt in 1976. But that was when they had some power. The Democratic-controlled state Senate stripped lieutenant governors of almost all their power after Gardner, a Republican, was elected in 1988.

Since then, lieutenant governors have had difficulty establishing a strong identity. For many voters, a lieutenant governor is just another Raleigh politician.

So Perdue is fighting for her political life, in part because she is seen by some voters as just part of the Raleigh crowd, which has had more than its share of scandals in recent years. In a Democratic year, Perdue is one of the few Democrats in trouble.

So something has to give. One of North Carolina's curses must come to an end in a month. But which one?

rob.christensen@newsobserver.com or (919) 829-4532

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