Ambac Releases Selected Monthly Data for August 2008 Monday, October 06, 2008 8:39 AM
Symbols: ABK
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE: ABK) (Ambac) today released
selected pre-tax financial data for the month of August, 2008. Ambac’s
impairment analysis is performed on a quarterly basis. As such, the
monthly data does not reflect the results of the quarterly credit
derivative impairment, insurance loss reserve and investment portfolio
impairment analysis.
Key Financial Highlights:
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Ambac discussed the impact of SFAS 157 on the estimate of fair value
relating to its credit derivative transactions during the Company’s
second quarter earnings call on August 6th, 2008 and in the Company’s
most recent 10Q filing. The following seeks to provide more
information on the impact of SFAS 157 during the month of August 2008
and the third quarter through August 31, 2008.
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The Net Change in Fair Value of Credit Derivatives is impacted by
credit spreads on the underlying reference obligations and by the
market’s perception of the risk of Ambac’s
own non-performance. Under SFAS 157, the change in fair value of Ambac’s
credit derivative liabilities varies inversely with the market’s
perception of Ambac’s own credit risk (e.g,,
increases in the perceived risk of Ambac’s
non-performance results in decreases in the fair value of Ambac’s
liabilities).
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Ambac recorded a significant benefit in the second quarter Net Change
in Fair Value of Credit Derivatives due to a significant widening of
Ambac’s credit default swap (CDS) spreads
as of June 30, 2008, following the rating agency downgrades of the
company to AA/Aa3 in early June. Ambac’s
CDS spread levels narrowed considerably in the first two months of the
third quarter of 2008. As Ambac’s CDS
spreads have tightened, the fair value of its derivative liabilities
has increased.
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The cost of five-year credit default protection against Ambac
Assurance Corporation (AAC) default declined 900 basis points from
2,100 basis points at June 30, 2008 to approximately 1,200 basis
points at the end of August. The effect of declining AAC CDS spreads
on the Net Change in Fair Value of Credit Derivatives for the third
quarter through August 31, 2008 was a negative adjustment of
approximately $2.2 billion ($0.1 billion for the month of August). The
remainder of the Net Change in Fair Value of Credit Derivatives was
due primarily to lower average quoted prices on the CDO of ABS
reference obligations. As of the end of the third quarter, AAC's CDS
spreads widened to approximately 1900 basis points.
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($ millions)
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Month of
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Third Quarter
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August
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Through
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Selected Data (Unaudited)
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2008
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Aug. 31, 2008
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Insured Portfolio
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Normal Premiums Earned (1)
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$ 51.0
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$ 104.1
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Accelerated Net Premiums Earned (2)
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36.0
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71.1
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Net Change in Fair Value of Credit Derivatives (3)
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(401.5)
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(2,867.1)
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Investment Portfolio
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Net Investment Income
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40.3
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83.5
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Change in Fair Value of the Investment Portfolio (4)
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- Financial Guarantee Portfolio
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54.4
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77.4
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- Financial Services Portfolio
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(61.0)
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(372.9)
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Financial Guarantee Liquidity
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Installment Premiums Written, net of reinsurance
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27.2
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61.8
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Investment Portfolio Cash Received (5)
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154.8
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325.2
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Claims Paid, net of reinsurance
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(41.7)
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(89.3)
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Credit Derivative Payments (6)
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(848.0)
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(851.7)
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(1) Defined as net premiums earned, computed in conformity with
U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, less accelerated
net premiums earned as defined in footnote 2 below.
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(2) Accelerated net premiums earned relate to transactions that
had been insured by Ambac Assurance, which have been called or
refunded in the periods presented. When an issue insured by Ambac
Assurance has been refunded or called, any remaining unearned
premium is earned at that time.
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(3) Estimated changes in fair value of credit derivatives may not
include all adjustments that would be included in the quarterly
results presented in conformity with U.S. generally accepted
accounting principles. Certain surveillance, valuation and
reserving processes are performed on a quarterly basis, including
processes that are considered important inputs to calculations of
fair value (such as internal Ambac ratings on the underlying
reference obligations). Consequently, monthly results may differ
materially from amounts that would be determined in connection
with the quarterly close process.
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(4) Includes both realized and unrealized gains and losses.
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(5) Defined as principal received on maturing invested assets plus
coupon interest received during the period.
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(6) During August, 2008, Ambac settled a $1.4 Billion CDO Squared
Exposure, AA Bespoke, for a cash payment of $850 million.
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($ millions)
Selected Data (Unaudited)
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End of Period Balances
(at Aug. 31, 2008)
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Financial Guarantee Investment Portfolio
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Long Term Investment Portfolio at Fair Value
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$9,796.7
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Cash & Short Term Investment Balances
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1,329.3
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Total
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11,126.0
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Holding Company Cash, Short Term Investment and Inter-company
Loan Balances (7)
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Ambac Financial Group, Inc (parent only)
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197.8
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(7) Inter-company loans are expected to be settled by quarter end.
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Forward-Looking Statements
This release contains statements that may constitute "forward-looking
statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any or all of
management’s forward-looking statements here
or in other publications may turn out to be wrong and are based on Ambac’s
management current belief or opinions. Ambac’s
actual results may vary materially, and there are no guarantees about
the performance of Ambac’s securities. Among
events, risks, uncertainties or factors that could cause actual results
to differ materially are: (1) changes in the economic, credit, foreign
currency or interest rate environment in the United States and abroad;
(2) the level of activity within the national and worldwide credit
markets; (3) competitive conditions, pricing levels and reduction in
demand for financial guarantee products; (4) legislative and regulatory
developments; (5) changes in tax laws; (6) changes in our business plan,
our decision to discontinue writing new business in the financial
services area, to significantly reduce new underwriting of structured
finance business and to discontinue all new underwritings of structured
finance business for six months from March 6, 2008; (7) the policies and
actions of the United States and other governments; (8) changes in
capital requirements whether resulting from downgrades in our insured
portfolio or changes in rating agencies’
rating criteria or other reasons; (9) changes in Ambac’s
and/or Ambac Assurance’s credit or financial
strength ratings; (10) changes in accounting principles or practices
relating to the financial guarantee industry or that may impact Ambac’s
reported financial results; (11) inadequacy of reserves established for
losses and loss expenses; (12) default by one or more of Ambac Assurance’s portfolio
investments, insured issuers, counterparties or reinsurers; (13) credit
risk throughout our business, including large single exposures to
reinsurers; (14) market spreads and pricing on insured collateralized
debt obligations (“CDOs”)
and other derivative products insured or issued by Ambac; (15) credit
risk related to residential mortgage securities and CDOs; (16) the risk
that holders of debt securities or counterparties on credit default
swaps or other similar agreements seek to declare events of default or
seek judicial relief or bring claims alleging violation or breach of
covenants by Ambac or one of its subsidiaries; (17) the risk that our
underwriting and risk management policies and practices do not
anticipate certain risks and/or the magnitude of potential for loss as a
result of unforeseen risks; (18) the risk of volatility in income and
earnings, including volatility due to the application of fair value
accounting, or FAS 133, to the portion of our credit enhancement
business which is executed in credit derivative form; (19) operational
risks, including with respect to internal processes, risk models,
systems and employees; (20) the risk of decline in market position;
(21) the risk that market risks impact assets in our investment
portfolio; (22) the risk of credit and liquidity risk due to unscheduled
and unanticipated withdrawals on investment agreements; (23) changes in
prepayment speeds on insured asset-backed securities; (24) factors that
may influence the amount of installment premiums paid to Ambac; (25) the
risk that we may be required to raise additional capital, which could
have a dilutive effect on our outstanding equity capital and/or future
earnings; (26) our ability or inability to raise additional capital,
including the risks that regulatory or other approvals for any plan to
raise capital are not obtained, or that various conditions to such a
plan, either imposed by third parties or imposed by Ambac or its Board
of Directors, are not satisfied and thus potentially necessary capital
raising transactions do not occur, or the risk that for other reasons
the Company cannot accomplish any potentially necessary capital raising
transactions; (27) the risk that Ambac’s
holding company structure and certain regulatory and other constraints,
including adverse business performance, affect Ambac’s
ability to pay dividends and make other payments; (28) the risk of
litigation and regulatory inquiries or investigations, and the risk of
adverse outcomes in connection therewith, which could have a material
adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position,
profitability or cash flows; (29) changes in expectations regarding
future realization of gross deferred tax assets; (30) risks relating to
the re-launch of Connie Lee; (31) other factors described in the Risk
Factors section in Part I, 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the
fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 and in Part II, Item 1A of our
Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2008, and
also disclosed from time to time by Ambac in its subsequent reports on
Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, which are or will be available on the Ambac
website at www.ambac.com
and at the SEC’s website, www.sec.gov;
and (32) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at
this time. Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements speak
only as of the date they are made and that Ambac does not undertake to
update forward-looking statements to reflect circumstances or events
that arise after the date the statements are made. You are therefore
advised to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects
in Ambac’s reports to the SEC.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in New York City, is a
holding company whose affiliates provide financial guarantees and
financial services to clients in both the public and private sectors
around the world. Ambac's principal operating subsidiary, Ambac
Assurance Corporation, a guarantor of public finance and structured
finance obligations, has earned a Aa3 rating from Moody's Investors
Service, Inc. and a AA rating from Standard & Poor's Ratings Services;
Moody’s rating is on review for downgrade
while Standard & Poor's maintain a negative outlook. Ambac Financial
Group, Inc. common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange
(ticker symbol ABK).
Ambac Investors/Media: Vandana Sharma, 212-208-3333 vsharma@ambac.com or Fixed
Income: Peter Poillon, 212-208-3222 ppoillon@ambac.com
(Source: Business Wire )
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