Tom Udall so far has a big lead over Steve Pearce in the contest for the U.S. Senate seat that longtime Republican Sen. Pete Domenici will retire from after the end of the year, a Journal Poll found.

Udall, the Democratic incumbent in New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, had the backing of 51 percent of likely voters statewide. Pearce, a Republican who currently represents the state's 2nd Congressional District, was supported by 36 percent.

The poll, conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 2, found 13 percent of voters statewide undecided. It was conducted as Congress debated a $700 billion bailout plan for the financial industry and a crum- bling national economy. Udall and Pearce both voted against the initial House version of the rescue plan on Sept. 29 and both again voted "no" on the final version on Friday.

Udall sailed unopposed through his party's June primary election, while Pearce earned the right to represent his party with a hard- fought primary election victory over Republican 1st Congressional District Rep. Heather Wilson.

Pearce's strong conservative message helped him win the primary - - a contest in which hard-core party activists are particularly influential. But Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff, president of Albuquerque's Research & Polling Inc., said Pearce's conservative political message has so far not had the same traction in the lead- up to the Nov. 4 general election.

"When you look at Republicans who have enjoyed statewide success, they all ran as 'middle-of-the-roaders,' " said Sanderoff, pointing to Domenici and former GOP Govs. Gary Johnson and Garrey Carruthers as examples.

Pearce has aimed a series of attack ads at Udall that accuse him of being an out-of-touch liberal.

"At this time, it evidently has limited legs -- particularly when the mood of the state and nation appears to be leaning Democrat," Sanderoff added.

In the Journal Poll, Udall and Pearce each were backed by 78 percent of the voters from their own political parties, but Udall had more support from independents: 54 percent of those voters favored Udall, compared with 28 percent for Pearce. Eighteen percent of independents were undecided.

D emocrat s out nu mb er Republicans in New Mexico, and "Steve Pearce is not peeling off enough Democrats -- which is typically part of the winning curve for Republicans," Sanderoff said.

Udall also had a big-margin lead among Hispanic voters, with 66 percent supporting him and 14 percent backing Pearce. Nineteen percent of Hispanic voters were undecided.

Udall also had a double-digit advantage among female voters, with 53 percent of women backing him and 32 percent favoring Pearce.

"We do have a gender gap here," Sanderoff said.

Pearce, a former oil well service company owner from Hobbs, had a big-margin advantage on his political home turf: 60 percent of voters on New Mexico's conservative east side backed Pearce, while 32 percent supported Udall.

But Sanderoff said Udall had a "phenomenal" advantage in his own political backyard of north-central New Mexico, where 75 percent of those surveyed supported him -- and only 15 percent backed Pearce.

Udall also had the polling upper hand in the Albuquerque metro area, the state's population center where Wilson over the years has managed to pull out a series of againstthe-odds 1st Congressional District victories. Fifty-five percent of voters in the metro area backed Udall; 31 percent supported Pearce.

"Steve Pearce is not catching on in Albuquerque," Sanderoff said. "A Republican cannot come out of Albuquerque down by 24 points and expect to win."

Udall had an advantage over Pearce among voters in all age categories and voters with all levels of education, from those with no more than a high school diploma to those with graduate degrees.

(c) 2008 Albuquerque Journal. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.