Nearly half of New Mexican voters surveyed in a Journal Poll expect the national economy will improve over the next year, while nearly a quarter said conditions will stay pretty much the same.

Only 16 percent thought economic conditions in the country will be worse a year from now, according to the poll conducted by Research & Polling, Inc. of Albuquerque.

Optimism about the economy was somewhat higher among Republicans than Democrats, with 53 percent of the Republicans surveyed saying they think economic conditions will improve compared to 43 percent of Democrats.

Twenty-seven percent of Democrats said they expect conditions will be about the same a year from now, compared with 21 percent of the Republicans.

N.M. Anglo voters had a more optimistic outlook than Hispanics, with 54 percent expecting better times by this time next year compared with 43 percent of Hispanics. Thirty percent of the Hispanic voters said economic conditions would be the same a year from now, compared with 21 percent of Anglos. The survey of likely voters in New Mexico began Sept. 29, which was the day the U.S. House rejected the proposed $700 billion bailout of the battered financial industry, and ended on Oct. 2, the day before the House approved the Senate's revamped version of the rescue plan.

Overall, 48 percent of the voters surveyed said the economy will be better a year from now; 23 percent said economic conditions will be the same, and 16 percent said the economy will worsen. An additional 13 percent said they didn't know or wouldn't say.

"People have been extremely concerned regarding the current state of our economy and are very worried," said Brian Sanderoff, head of Research & Polling Inc. in Albuquerque, which conducted the Journal Poll. Events of the last few weeks, with tremendous fluctuations of the stock market, bank failures and mergers, have heightened those fears.

Relative optimism here could be influenced by the fact that New Mexico hasn't been hit as hard as some other states, Sanderoff said.

"Some states have had massive mortgage foreclosure issues; other states have had higher unemployment and slower growth than New Mexico," Sanderoff said. "So I suspect the results here in New Mexico would be better than in some other states."

Republicans and Anglos might be a little more optimistic because their relative income levels tend to be higher than Democrats and Hispanics, Sanderoff said.

"People who have less economically tend to worry more about what the future holds," Sanderoff said. "Often times, among the people who have less, it takes more time for them to benefit from turnarounds in the economy. Often times, they're in hourly rate positions, may not be getting pay raises or they fear layoffs."

Those in southern New Mexico were much less likely to say that economic conditions will improve.

"Southern New Mexico does include lots of rural counties that are not as economically robust, that are suffering more so than, let's say, Albuquerque or Santa Fe," Sanderoff said.

Thirty-six percent of those in southern New Mexico expect better economic times, compared with 49 percent in the Albuquerque metro region. The most optimistic: northwest New Mexico, where 58 percent expected improvement.

Voters between the ages of 35 and 49 were about twice as likely to believe the economic conditions would be worse than were other age groups.

"A lot of them (in that age group) are raising families and have a lot more expenses, with the cost of gasoline, the cost of living and food and carting around those kids all over town," Sanderoff said.

The Journal Poll on the economy is based on telephone interviews Sept. 29-Oct. 2 with 400 registered voters statewide who said they are likely to vote on Nov. 4. Survey results based on this scientific sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

(c) 2008 Albuquerque Journal. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.