Detroit Free Press Susan Tompor Column: Market Roars Back, but Does That Mean the Worst is Over?
Tuesday, October 14, 2008 12:14 PM
Symbols: AMP, DTE, F, GM, K
(Source: Detroit Free Press)trackingBy Susan Tompor, Detroit Free Press

Oct. 14--So is everybody about to get rich again?

Well, maybe not. But investors did feel welcome relief when the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 936.42 points -- or an amazing 11.08% -- Monday. The Dow closed at 9387.61 points.

It was the biggest rally since 1933 -- after one brutal, bloody, downright awful week last week.

Monday also was Columbus Day, so we might want to be a little skeptical still and wait to see what happens on a day that's not a holiday for many people. The bond market was closed on Monday.

Still, we can cross our fingers, can't we?

"After what we went through in the first eight trading days in October, I'll take today," said David Sowerby, portfolio manager for Loomis, Sayles & Co. in Bloomfield Hills.

He attributed the rebound to bargain hunters -- as well as more faith in the global effort to shore up the world's financial system.

Other experts agreed and said investors saw some hope of an end to the credit crunch, with a government plan to buy stakes in banks.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve officials met Monday with executives from financial companies to discuss the government plan to restore confidence in credit markets. And Europe put almost $2 trillion on the line to break the lending logjam.

Is the worst over?

"I don't know if the worst is over, but I suspect it is," said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer for Johnson Illington Advisors, a money management company in Albany, N.Y.

"My instincts tell me that the stock market has seen its worst, but the economy has not."

No time to sell

Market watchers say the U.S. economy continues to teeter near recession.

Even so, last week's dismal days on Wall Street had all the panic and signs of a year-old bear market's last fight.

"Investors were selling first -- and asking questions later," Johnson said.

On Monday, General Motors Corp. stock closed at $6.51 a share, up $1.62 or 33%. Ford Motor Co. closed at $2.39 a share, up 40 cents or 20%.

Kellogg Co. closed at $52.27 a share, up $3.78 or 7.8%.

Mark Davis, president of Haas Financial Products in Southfield, said some strong companies, including DTE Energy, had fallen to extremely low levels. He said some perfectly good companies had seen their stocks fall 35% or more, so investors did see some bargains.

Still unpredictable

Davis called Monday's incredible rally another example of the unpredictable nature of this market.

"It's just another symptom of a hysterical market," Davis said.

Ameriprise Financial chief economist Daniel Laufenberg said Monday that investors shouldn't just sell into this rally unless they absolutely need the money -- or cannot live with the volatility. He noted that many investors would still have significant losses.

The Dow continues to be down 13.4% from the close of 10,850.66 on Sept. 30.

It continues to be down nearly 34% from the record 14,164.53 points set on Oct. 9, 2007.

So most investors -- unless they bought big Friday -- aren't quitting their day jobs on Monday's news.

Contact SUSAN TOMPOR at stompor@freepress.com.

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NYSE:GM, NYSE:F, NYSE:K, NYSE:DTE, NYSE:AMP,


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