AMID THE CONTROVERSY over booming commodities prices and the futures markets, Terrence Duffy, chairman of the world's largest futures exchange operator, recently testified before Congress, saying, "We do not profit from higher food or energy prices." Judging by CME Group's (CME) slumping shares this year, investors must agree.
There are multiple reasons why CME Group, which owns the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (NYSE:CME) , Chicago Board of Trade and is trying to acquire the New York Mercantile Exchange, isn't itself a hot commodity these days. Despite being the ultimate marketplace for investors betting on the future price of corn, cattle and other goods, the Chicago company's stock is down to its lowest levels in two years. It's fallen 39% since January and is now at a good discount to peers and the S&P 500.
But with the growing calls for more futures regulations, and concern over whether commodities will go bust, is CME's stock a good buy?
CME shares are hurting in part because of worries that the credit crisis ushered in a new era of deleveraging. This means the companies and institutions that use futures and options to hedge and speculate will prioritize paying off debts, leaving less cash for trading. Trading volume is key to CME's earnings, so less volume means less growth. And in May, CME spooked investors by reporting a slim 4% increase in monthly trading volume.
Yet market turmoil and economic uncertainties should actually benefit CME, which offers futures, and options on futures, in commodities, interest rates, stock indexes and foreign exchange. If it acquires Nymex Holdings (NYSE:NMX) (NMX), owner of the New York Mercantile Exchange, it will add energy and metals to the list. With so many offerings, CME profits from a multitude of economic unknowns. In the short term, questions about if and when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to strengthen the dollar and control inflation, for instance, should be a boon to CME's interest-rate futures products, such as its Eurodollar futures and options, which lead the industry by average daily volume.
"Volume has picked up in the last few weeks and could remain at elevated levels as the Fed appears poised to raise interest rates," Citigroup analyst Donald Fandetti said in a research note on June 16. "Even if the Fed doesn't raise rates in the near term, we are getting closer to a Fed rate increase cycle."
Longer term, more businesses and institutions want increasingly sophisticated financial products to manage the risks in their portfolios.