In the news release, PMI Summer 2008 Risk Index Indicates Risk
Intensifying in Areas With Previous Rapid Home Price Growth, issued Tuesday,
July 1, by PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. over PR Newswire, we are advised by the
company that the tenth line item, 'Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton; OR-WA,'
should have been the twenty-fifth line item with a rank of 5 as opposed to 1,
and the score of 8.2 rather than 79.7.
The complete, corrected release follows:
PMI Summer 2008 Risk Index Indicates Risk Intensifying in Areas With Previous
Rapid Home Price Growth
Housing Affordability Continues to Improve
WALNUT CREEK, Calif., July 1 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- PMI Mortgage
Insurance Co., the primary U.S. subsidiary of The PMI Group, Inc. (NYSE: PMI),
today released its Summer 2008 U.S. Market Risk Index(SM), which ranks the
nation's 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) according to the
likelihood that home prices will be lower in two years. The U.S. Market Risk
Index shows risk further diverged along two distinctly different paths during
the first quarter of 2008, continuing a trend that began in the fourth quarter
of 2007. In general, risk continued to intensify in many of the MSAs where
home price growth had significantly exceeded historical norms during the
housing boom, but continued to decline in many other areas across the country.
A complete copy of the Summer 2008 PMI ERET report and an appendix that
provides data for all 381 U.S. MSAs is available at:
http://www.pmi-us.com/eret.
The highest risk of future price declines remains in
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA (95.5), followed by
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL (92.2), and West Palm
Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL (91.9). The areas with the lowest risk of
price declines are in Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX, and
Pittsburgh, PA, each at less than a 1 percent chance.
The risk of lower prices in two years declined in 35 of the nation's 50
largest MSAs, and among all 381 MSAs, 326 experienced a decline in risk.
Among the top 50 MSAs, 16 ranked in the two highest risk categories, and among
those, 15 were in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona. Risk of lower
prices in two years is greater than 50 percent in all of these MSAs.
Risk scores translate directly into an estimated percentage risk that home
prices will be lower in two years. The Summer 2008 Risk Index is based on
first-quarter Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) data.
'Compared with a year earlier, there has been a significant increase in
the number of existing single-family homes for sale relative to the number of
buyers, even beyond the normal increase in the spring home sales season.
April's ratio is the highest since 1985,' said David Berson, PMI's Chief
Economist and Strategist.
