[OSC Translated Text] [Article by Nikolay Vardul: "Going down Putin's path" - taken from HTML version of source provided by ISP]

[Russian President] Dmitriy Medvedev has conducted a tour of the capitals of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. According to the official theory, his visit was completely a protocol one. In reality, even the tour route itself suggests that hidden behind the footage shown on television may have been negotiations that are not just substantial but of priority importance for Russian geopolicy.

In my opinion, the greatest geopolitical success achieved by Vladimir Putin is a tripartite alliance that has been concluded with Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Its main benefit is the agreement of Russia's Central Asian neighbours to export most of their gas volumes through Gazprom infrastructure. The "cordial agreement" on gas exports substantially changed the gas market structure. It offered grounds for saying that a combat cell of a gas OPEC was being formed under the Kremlin's aegis. Official Moscow has disowned plans to create this kind of transnational organization. Of course, there is no direct analogy. It does not exist not only because there is not (at least, for now) a mechanism for setting quotas for gas supplies but also because the gas market is arbitrary and even to a greater extent than the oil market it is controlled not by regular "market entities" but state companies with states standing behind them. The latter circumstance is evidenced by the fact that disputes are still going on over what should be considered the world gas price. The gas prices are there but they are formed not so much by the market as by inter-governmental agreements on a formula of this price, which is based on prices of oil and some oil products.

What contribution has Dmitriy Medvedev made to sort out this arbitrary gas market? He started his tour in Baku. Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan in the sphere of gas business are rather neutral for now - if only because gas consumers in Europe, while counting on alternative gas sources, have made their bets recently not so much on Iran (its policy defies predictions) as on Azerbaijan. Medvedev's visit to Baku was necessary if only for this reason.

Most of the resources Baku counts on are in the Caspian Sea. This sea is divided only in its northern region - between Russia and Kazakhstan. Incidentally, let me note that Kazakhstan received more than Russia was initially prepared to give it, but in reply Lukoil received opportunities to extract oil in Kazakhstan. On the agenda is the division of a large filed in the southern Caspian. And Moscow's position will not cost little (the final division is confirmed by all the five states). The subject of talks on prospects of Nabucco and the Caspian division is obvious.

The declaration by [Gazprom CEO] Aleksey Miller, who for obvious reasons accompanied Medvedev on his tour and who effectively offered Baku to buy up all its gas, directly confirms the fact of gas talks conducted during the trip by the Russian president.

The Caspian forum will be held in the immediate future and a gas forum of major gas producing states will take place in Moscow next October. This is also when the first results produced by Dmitriy Medvedev's gas diplomacy should come up on surface.

Originally published by Gazeta, Moscow, in Russian 7 Jul 08.

(c) 2008 BBC Monitoring Central Asia. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All rights Reserved.

Story Source: BBC Monitoring Central Asia