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A Tale of Two Cities' Job Growth for OKC, Tulsa
Thursday, August 07, 2008 9:55 AM


By Kirby Lee Davis

Oklahoma State University economist Mark Snead boosted his 2008 Oklahoma City job growth projection to 1.5 percent, according to a midyear report released Wednesday.

Bolstered by a vibrant energy industry, he predicted the Oklahoma City market would add 1.8-percent more jobs next year.

But Tulsa displays more signs of the nation's economic slowdown.

"For the 12 months ended in June, the Tulsa metro area posted job growth of only 0.2 percent, versus 1.6 percent for Oklahoma City and 1.4 percent statewide," said Snead, the director of OSU's Spears School of Business Center for Applied Economic Research. "While the overall outlook for the Tulsa region remains strong relative to the nation, our job forecast for Tulsa has dropped from 1.0 percent to 0.6 percent for 2008, but is boosted slightly from 1.3 percent to 1.6 percent for 2009."

His Oklahoma City outlook marks a reversal from his April report where, from new federal employment data indicating spreading weakness, Snead lowered the capital city's 2008 job growth forecast from 1.5 percent to 1.2 percent. That accentuated three years of declining job growth, even with the benefits of a strong oil and gas sector.

"The current outlook for Oklahoma City remains quite positive," he said Wednesday. "Oil and gas hiring continues to propel the region, while manufacturing remains the greatest source of hiring weakness. The broad services sectors continue to generate significant numbers of new jobs."

Citing deteriorating national conditions in April, Snead had lowered Oklahoma's 2008 job growth projection from 1.2 percent to 1.1 percent, and its 2009 estimate from 1.6 percent to 1.4 percent.

"Our outlook for 2008 and 2009 has been on target to this point and remains largely unchanged - that limited spillover from housing, a smaller sub-prime concern, and a boost from high energy prices will reduce the risk for the state in the slowdown and allow the state to outperform the nation," he said Wednesday.

That mirrors regional strengths that provide some insulation for Oklahoma and its neighboring states from issues shaping the national and non-energy economies.

But he stressed that Oklahoma is not immune to those factors.

"Another upward leg in energy prices toward $200 per barrel would likely be the catalyst for producing the textbook recession we have managed to sidestep to this point," said Snead. "State job gains continue to slow in near lockstep with national job gains, from more than 3 percent in early 2006 to the 1.4-percent annual rate posted in June."

On Wednesday Snead pegged state job growth at 1.4 percent this year and 1.3 percent in 2009.

"The job growth gap between the state and nation is currently about 1.0 percent," he said.

Snead said the U.S. economy continues to show resilience under the burdens of high energy prices, falling housing values, and the ongoing credit squeeze.




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