Nov. 8--You don't have to tell Joyce Hatfield of Nampa about Idaho's looming recession. She's probably going to be part of it.

Hatfield, who lost her job at MPC Corp. on Wednesday, is one of nearly 20,000 jobless people -- half the state's unemployed -- who live in the Treasure Valley.

"It's a scary feeling," she said. "You don't know how you are going to pay your bills."

The state's jobless rate rose last month to 5.4 percent, its highest level in nearly six years. Unemployment reached 5.9 percent in the Boise-Nampa area, up from 2.8 percent a year ago.

Prospects are remote for a way out of Idaho's rising unemployment anytime soon. State officials predict a continuing downturn in unemployment for another year.

"The economic evidence for a recession is hard to ignore," state economists wrote in their latest forecast. "This recession is likely to be more like the 1981-82 recession than the mild 1990-91 and 2001 downturns."

Nationally, economist are reaching the same conclusion.

"I think it is awfully hard to say you're not in a recession at this point," said David Wyss, chief economist for the New York rating agency Standard & Poor's. "Ten consecutive drops in payrolls, I think any way you look at it, is a recession."

Employers nationwide slashed 240,000 jobs in October, sending the unemployment rate soaring to 6.5 percent, its highest level since March 1994.

"Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008; over half of the decrease has occurred in the past three months," according to a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

Friday's dismal jobs report followed word last week that the economy had contracted 0.3 percent in the third quarter. A recession generally is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. There is little dispute that the last three months of 2008 will be terrible for the economy.

In Idaho, nearly 41,000 people are out of work -- that's twice the number of a year ago and the highest number in about 25 years. Some 719,000 people had jobs. Idaho's unemployment is still lower than the national rate, but the gap is closing.

No region of the state appears immune. Six rural counties broke through to double-digit jobless rates.

In the last few weeks, MPC Corp. in Nampa says it has laid off at least 288 local workers as the company veered toward bankruptcy. Micron Technology Inc. last month announced voluntary reductions and layoffs that could affect nearly 1,500 Treasure Valley workers by Christmas. Retailers Mervyns and Linens 'N Things announced plans to close, costing 150 jobs.

For a region that has seen practically a generation of economic growth, the spectre of returning to a 1980s-style recession may be hard to fathom. But those who lived through it say it was tough.

Idaho's economic triad then -- timber, mining and agriculture -- took hard hits. State government squeezed higher education, forcing some schools to make unpopular and eventually unworkable decisions to cut costs. The University of Idaho tried to lay off 15 tenured faculty members, recalled Marty Peterson, assistant to the U of I president. Eventually, each of the professors took U of I to court and won their jobs back.

As timber collapsed, exports dwindled, recalled Richard Slaughter, a Boise economic consultant and former state chief economist.

While Idaho is no longer as reliant on timber as it once was, Slaughter sees parallels in Idaho high-tech companies like Micron, which is struggling to sell its chips. High tech "is under competitive stress," Slaughter said.

Hatfield, the laid-off MPC worker, is taking action. She's hoping for some federal government help to enroll in college and get a new career. She's done with sales, which she did in her last couple of jobs. She's thinking about a job in the health field, a business practically untouched by the sagging economy.

Whatever happens, she wants to stay in Idaho.

"I have my grandchildren here," she said.

Bill Roberts 377-6408. McClatchy Newspapers contributed to this report.

-----

To see more of the Idaho Statesman, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.idahostatesman.com

Copyright (c) 2008, The Idaho Statesman, Boise

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

AMEX:MPZ, NYSE:MU,

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.