"The basic maxim of democracy should always be: turn the rascals out. When people are entrusted with power and make a botch of it, their options should be dropped."

- Arthur Schlesinger on the 1980 election.

***

Barack Obama was elected our first African-American president when economic calamity caused a political slide among almost every group toward the Democrats, and also because he inspired a landmark mobilization among the youngest voters. The Crash of 2008 gave Obama the populist edge he needed to woo white swing voters, allowing him to conquer key previously "red" states.

For the second straight election cycle, voters were in a mood to punish the Republicans -- and did so vigorously. Since 2005, Democrats have gained nearly 70 seats in both Houses of Congress.

Regardless of who won, this year would have been one for the history books. Presented with a historic choice and dramatic circumstances, Americans contributed, watched the debates and conventions and then voted at record rates. The intensity of voter interest and turnout, the quality of convention speeches and the large TV audiences for the debates all combine to make 2008 a political classic.

Jonathan Rauch wrote in the National Journal that voters this year had the best choice since Eisenhower-Stevenson in the '50s, while David Broder called this the best campaign he's seen in five decades of reporting. I agree with both of them. John McCain was an undeniable war hero with proven appeal to independents and a track record of bipartisan accomplishments who was defeated by events beyond his control, while Obama was the most charismatic Democrat since John F. Kennedy. Both men ended the campaign with roughly 60 percent approval ratings in the Gallup Polls, which hasn't happened since 1960.

So what happened?

Occam's Razor: It was the economy again. Scientists often recall the theory of the English scientist William of Ockham, who theorized that in the absence of any other evidence, the simplest explanation is probably the right one. Both Michael Barone of Fox News ("McCain had the advantage several times this election and fate took it away") and Byron York in National Review ("What sank McCain's presidential bid was a set of the worst conditions to face any candidate in decades, in combination with an opponent who was not only a better campaigner but also the favorite of the nation's media establishment.") asserted that outside events wrecked the McCain campaign. Democratic consultant James Carville also called the election for Obama in September. They are almost certainly right.

With his successful convention and selection of Sarah Palin, McCain was slightly ahead in the average of national polls in early September. After putting Obama on the defensive on energy production and ridiculing his celebrity, all the pieces were in place for a successful GOP comeback based on a hardball anti-liberal campaign. Presumably, independent groups and conservative talk radio hosts would have thrown the knockout punch in late-October by harping on Obama's liberalism and youth (with perhaps a hint of the race card). For all the criticism of McCain-Palin, they were winning until the market crashed.

On Sept. 15, the financial system nearly collapsed under the weight of bad mortgage debts. The unemployment rate also shot up as the recession became apparent with a million jobs lost. The financial meltdown was devastating to Republicans because it hit hardest their base among the middle class, and those are also the voters with the highest turnout. Obama resurged to a steady lead of 6 to 8 points that held up.

Older white voters, who had supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries, swung back to Obama on the economic issue. The 93 percent of voters who said that economic conditions were "not so good" or "poor" voted for Obama by 54 percent to 44 percent, providing his margin of victory. And 63 percent of voters cited the economy as the most important issue, and they voted 53 percent to 44 percent Democratic. The crash turned the usual GOP advantage in the suburbs into an even split.

In 1990, as the first Persian Gulf crisis was cranking up, Republican analyst Kevin Phillips wondered whether President George H.W. Bush would give us "the economics of Herbert Hoover and the military misjudgment of Lyndon Johnson." That did not occur in the early 1990s as Bush led the allied forces to an easy victory over Iraq. (The recession of 1992 caused his loss to Bill Clinton and Ross Perot).

However, this is perilously close to being the judgment of the second Bush presidency. The various disappointments of the last four years -- Iraq, Katrina, the scandals and most of all the fall financial crash -- created a massive wave of discontent that Obama and the Democrats rode to victory on a platform of "change." The goats of this election are the GOP officials who designed the policies that drove the Bush administration into the ditch: Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and Karl Rove.