That's more than four times the size of the annual Miami-Dade County budget, the equivalent of building about 61 retractable-roof stadiums for the Florida Marlins, and almost half of this year's state budget.

The free fall in revenue that the economists saw Nov. 21 was not as shocking as what caused it: For the first time in decades, fewer people were moving to the state. Florida's legendary growth machine had ground to a halt, compounding the troubles brought on by the global recession.

For years, governors and legislators relied on population growth to create jobs, avoid tax increases and shield the state from recession. They saw Florida's population swell by 2 percent to 3 percent a year, enough to add a city the size of Miami or Tampa each year.

By marketing itself as a low-tax, low-cost retirement haven, Florida literally bet its future on growth.

Every few years, an event would expose weaknesses in Florida's economic system: a recession in 1991, a school overcrowding crisis in 1997, a steep drop in tourism after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But the growth machine always roared back to life _ until now.

With the mortgage crisis, credit crunch and flat-lining of population, the twin industries that buffered Florida through two previous recessions _ real estate and construction _ are weighing down Florida's economy, complicating a recovery and making it likely that Florida will be among the last to bounce back.

"This recession is not only going to be bad for us. It's going to be worse than the nation's," said David Denslow, a University of Florida economist. The primary reason: Florida's residential construction boom grew at twice its normal rate and "we got overbuilt."

The backlog of unsold homes nationwide, coupled with the credit crisis, makes it almost impossible for Florida to lure people from other states when they can't sell their homes, Denslow said. At the same time, cuts in property taxes and a deepening state budget shortfall squeeze basic public services, making the state less appealing to retirees.

State economists predicted this month that the recession will linger throughout next year, with a gradual return to very slow growth in employment and population in 2010.

The pessimism of the revenue experts, however, stands in stark contrast to the optimism of Gov. Charlie Crist, who said, after economists completed their latest forecast: "Florida will probably come out of it first. I mean, the sun always comes up in Florida first."

How quickly did Florida's once- bright economy turn gloomy? The state led the nation in job growth in 2005 and now leads the nation in job losses. After five years of double-digit increases in housing starts and price increases, it's now second in the nation in foreclosure filings, with 444,000 homeowners in default, according to industry researcher RealtyTrac.

Florida had the lowest unemployment rate in June 2006. Now it has the ninth-highest.

And in the most important indicator of a productive economy, gross domestic product, Florida led the nation in 2005 and now ranks 47th.

"We are in trouble," Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who pays the state's bills, said earlier this month.