Dec. 1--As if the nation weren't facing enough crises: a deepening recession, a dysfunctional health care system, global climate change, military conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, to name but a few. Now comes a warning that the nation needs to plan better for "plausible national disasters."

In the St. Louis region, that includes earthquakes. Last week, the Mid-America Earthquake Center at the University of Illinois published a detailed assessment of the earthquake hazard. It's part of a larger Federal Emergency Management Agency study into what FEMA calls "catastrophic event response planning."

The planning process focuses on "plausible natural disasters that could impact the nation." In FEMA's view, an earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone of a magnitude of 7.7 on the Richter scale would be a disaster comparable to "a significant earthquake in Los Angeles" and "a Category V hurricane in Miami."

The University of Illinois study estimates that a 7.7-magnitude earthquake could kill nearly 800 people in Missouri and displace more than 120,000. Illinois could suffer 276 fatalities, $31 billion in economic losses, 51,000 displaced residents and 48,000 damaged buildings.

Of Missouri's 1.47 million single-family homes, about 23,000 would be destroyed. More than 55,000 homes would suffer moderate to severe damage. Most at risk: mobile homes and unreinforced masonry homes.

The good news is that the chances of an earthquake that severe are relatively small. But a quake of magnitude 6 or 7 is a near certainty, estimated at 90 percent at some point in the next 50 years.

The metro area lies 150 miles from the New Madrid Seismic Zone's epicenter, but that's small comfort -- especially in areas close to the Mississippi River. That includes much of the city of St. Louis. Soils near rivers are more prone to "liquefy" during seismic events, experts say, and there's a higher concentration of unreinforced masonry structures.

St. Louis University geophysicist Robert Herrmann summarized things this way:

"If there was an earthquake of a magnitude of 6.6 or so, St. Louis City (and) County would feel it; a lot of damage would be minor and not many collapses. If there was an earthquake of magnitude 8, there would be a good bit of damage, but the region would not be leveled."

Well, that's good news. So is the fact that "mitigation" efforts, many of which already are underway, could greatly limit losses that otherwise might be catastrophic.

Much of this involves smart development and land use. Crucial infrastructure elements such as roads, bridges, hospitals, power utilities, water-production facilities and sewage treatment plants must be located in areas less susceptible to quake damage; they should be engineered and retrofitted to be earthquake resistant.

Emergency response, of course, also is crucial. That requires mapping where the biggest problems are more likely to arise and developing detailed plans to provide power, shelter, food, potable water, transportation and medical care. Homeowners should: secure objects such as water heaters and heavy bookshelves that pose special hazards, develop a family communication plan, put aside emergency supplies of food and water and learn that in an earthquake, the safest refuge usually is inside a building under a sturdy piece of furniture.

All of these warnings are familiar, but the nation and FEMA learned the hard way during Hurricane Katrina what can happen if preparation is left to chance.

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