(Source: Houston Chronicle)

By Kristen Hays, Houston Chronicle
Dec. 13--When crude hit $70 a barrel, Canada's oil sands became alluring. At $80, wind energy was profitable. And at $100-plus, even pricey plans to turn coal into gasoline came within reach.
Now it's retrench time.
So far, companies aren't cutting major ongoing projects with oil under $50 amid a growing global recession and sharply shrunken demand. But increasingly they're postponing final investment decisions -- the point at which contracts get signed, contractors are hired, and money is committed -- at least until the lofty costs of doing business mirror crude's fall.
"It's been a little easier when prices have been so high," said George Kirkland, Chevron's executive vice president of global upstream and gas, in a recent interview at the company's San Ramon, Calif. headquarters. "For a period, oil prices went up faster than the costs of goods and services.
"But that's turned, it's definitely turned," he said. "And it's got to turn back."
Analysts say it will, perhaps by the middle of 2009. Once companies stop signing new contracts for steel, labor, drilling rigs, seabed equipment and all else that go into finding oil and gas, those things will be easier to get and their costs will fall.
But for now, the industry is focusing on ongoing projects while holding off on expansions and new projects.
Among recent examples:
--Royal Dutch Shell indefinitely postponed a decision on expanding its operations in Canada's oil sands.
--Canada's Suncor delayed completion of an upgrader that processes hard, thick bitumen so it can be refined, while Nexen and Petro-Canada put off decisions on whether to build upgraders.
-- Norway's Statoil withdrew an application to build an upgrader in Canada, citing "prohibitive" construction costs, the state of the global economy and an uncertain outlook for oil prices.
-- Saudi Aramco and ConocoPhillips delayed a final decision to move ahead on their $12 billion refinery in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, and are seeking new bids.
-- BG Group postponed a decision on whether to launch the third phase of developing a natural gas field in Kazakhstan.
-- Brigham Exploration suspended drilling by two rigs in the Bakken Shale, which stretches from Montana to the Dakotas and into Canada, for several months until costs of drilling and getting a well ready to produce come down.
"If you're looking at a go/no-go decision now, and steel prices are going down, a typical deep-water project gets a quarter of its cost from steel," said Candida Scott, an analyst with IHS Energy.