Dec. 15--H

How many grocery stores can make it in the city? St. Paul residents will soon find out with more supermarkets on the way.

Some see the increasing number of grocery stores and brands within the city limits as a response to urban population trends and a need for more stores in many underserved neighborhoods.

Higher land prices and smaller spaces in the city used to deter construction of supermarkets, but the long-term trends of rising gas prices and longer commute times are inspiring many to consider urban living. Grocers are noticing. As the competition heats up, one industry expert warns that not everyone will survive.

'I'm sure the stores that have lower sales per square foot now are going to be pushed out of the market,' said David Livingston, a Milwaukee-based grocery consultant.

Meanwhile, plans for more markets are well under way in St. Paul.

--A fourth Twin Cities Trader Joe's, with the California chain's formula of cheap wine and gourmet products, is under construction and expected to open in June at Randolph Street and Lexington Avenue.

--Co-op Mississippi Market has broken ground at the Victoria Park development near West Seventh Street and Otto Avenue, opening in July if all goes as planned. The 7,722-square-foot store eventually will replace the Randolph Avenue location that's about half the size. Mississippi Market also has a location at Selby and Dale.

--An upscale Lunds is to break ground next fall if the developer of the long-awaited Penfield development can find financing for the proposed hotel/apartment/grocery store project.

--Discount grocer Aldi recently announced another location on St. Paul's East Side, at Ruth Street and Suburban Avenue, coming in fall 2009 as part of a national expansion.

--A Cub Foods outlet, run by Eden Prairie-based Supervalu, opened Oct. 31 in the Phalen neighborhood.

More grocers will mean more pressure on sales at existing markets in the city.

"Even if a new player is coming in and the format is vastly different than yours, it still eats into your market share," said Kris Kowalski Christenson, chief operating officer at Woodbury-based Kowalski's. After SuperTarget opened in 2007 in the nearby Midway area, managers of the Kowalski's store on Grand Avenue noticed shoppers coming in but buying less.

They believe shoppers were supplementing their Kowalski's shopping with trips to SuperTarget.

In Woodbury, however, the Kowalski's supermarket hasn't felt much of an impact since Trader Joe's opened last year in the suburb.