Fitch Ratings has affirmed the following ratings of Eastman Chemical
Company (Eastman):
--Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB';
--Unsecured credit facility at 'BBB';
--Senior unsecured debt at 'BBB';
--Commercial paper at 'F2';
--Short-term IDR at 'F2'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
Eastman's ratings incorporate the size, scale and feedstock cost
advantages of the company's large vertically integrated facility in
Kingsport, TN; Eastman's leading market position in cellulose acetate
fibers; its reasonable leverage and credit metrics, and solid liquidity
position.
Offsetting considerations center on the impact of the current global
economic contraction, which has lowered demand and plant utilization
across much of the chemicals sector; the potential financing risk posed
by the company's proposed Beaumont gasification project; and the
possibility of further restructurings in Eastman's other business lines
if the current weak environment persists.
Given the recent huge decrease in energy feedstocks (with crude oil down
over $100 per barrel or 70% from its summer high), many downstream
customers have slowed or stopped purchases in the fourth quarter. It
remains unclear how much of this is tactical (customers waiting for
further price drops before stepping in) and how much is a longer-term
response to reduced demand expectations. Nonetheless, Fitch anticipates
the company's credit metrics to come under additional pressure in 2009.
Eastman recently decided to slow roll the FEED (Front End Engineering
and Design) process for its Beaumont gasification project in order to
take advantage of declining construction costs and simplify the project.
Given this delay, construction is not expected to start until before the
end of 2009 and run until 2012. Incremental leverage from the project is
currently estimated at the 65% or higher level; however, there are
several important risk mitigants for bondholders. Most important, the
debt is expected to be non-recourse, project financed; as a result,
credit concerns center largely on what kind of interim support the
parent is required to provide to get acceptable financial terms, as well
as how much support the parent entity would lend to the project outside
this framework if the project were to require additional support.
For the last 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2008, Eastman's EBITDA was $945
million, while free cash flow was a negative $137 million.