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Zacks Industry Rank Analysis Highlights: Anadarko Petroleum, BJ Services Company, Dril-Quip, Exxon Mobil and Precision Drilling Trust - Dec 19 2008 11:52PM
Friday, December 19, 2008 11:52 PM


(Source: BUSINESS WIRE)trackingCharles Rotblut, CFA

Company: Zacks.com

Phone: 312-265-9352

Email: pr@zacks.com

Visit: www.Zacks.com

Zacks.com releases the latest Zacks Industry Rank. Stocks featured in this week's analysis includes Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC), BJ Services Company (NYSE: BJS), Dril- Quip, Inc. (NYSE: DRQ), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Precision Drilling Trust (NYSE: PDS).

To see the Zacks Industry Rank and the trend in earnings estimates revisions for more than 200 industry groups, visit http:// at.zacks.com/?id=3154.

Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com.

This week: Bearish Short-Term Outlook For Oil Stocks

At yesterday's meeting, OPEC ministers agreed to a production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, which equates to a 4.2 million per day reduction from September levels. In addition, Russia, Syria and other non-member countries are also likely to lower production levels.

The moves are in response to the $100+ drop in oil that has occurred since Jul 11. The global economic slump, and forecasts for reduced consumption next year, has oil producers concerned about a loss of revenues.

Though OPEC members have a long history of violating quotas, production levels should drop after the meeting. The commodities markets, however, are unimpressed as crude was trading at just $43 per barrel this morning.

The Impact on Oil Stocks

For investors, today's meeting won't have any meaningful short- term impact. The "magic" number for many companies is believed to be about $65 per barrel. Oil prices below this level discourage capital investment and production. Prices above this level encourage more activity.

Not a line in the sand, per se, but a good benchmark for gauging what the industry is going to do.

The other issue is the credit markets. Even for companies with strong cash positions, access to debt financing remains difficult and expensive. This also discourages investment.

It is this combination of low oil prices and a lack of financing that has led brokerage analysts to continue lowering 2009 profit forecasts on a large number of oil-related stocks. The downward revisions span most of the energy sector including exploration and production company Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC), services provider BJ Services Company (NYSE: BJS), equipment maker Dril-Quip, Inc. (NYSE: DRQ) and driller Precision Drilling Trust (NYSE: PDS).

Even conglomerates like Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) are seeing their consensus earnings estimates lowered.

BJS and PDS are Zacks #5 Rank ("strong sell") stocks. APC, DRQ and XOM are Zacks #4 Rank ("sell") stocks.



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