Jan. 4--National chain retailers, the so-called big-box stores, may have to rethink their formula for deciding how many stores to put in a market if the economy remains soft, according to one retail expert.

Kristy Reynolds, a professor of marketing and management at the University of Alabama, said that slow sales are affecting the formula for some retailers.

It is possible, she said, for a retailer to reach market saturation in a specific area. When that happens, the stores start to take customers from other stores in the same chain, not just from competitors.

Daniel Butler, vice president of retail operations for the National Retail Federation, an industry trade association, disagrees, to a point.

Retailers, he said, are very careful about where they build new stores. New construction is planned well in advance, some times as far as seven years, so short-term trends rarely affect plans.

The stores themselves generally treat strategic plans as proprietary information. Each chain has its own formula for determining what population and demographics are needed to support an outlet, but those formulas are closely guarded secrets, Reynolds said.

"Most retailers use those kinds of models," she said.

The recently declared but year-old recession is likely to change the models for at least some retailers, she added.

While retailers are mum on long-term plans, several announced reductions to new stores planned for 2009. None of those reduced openings have specifically targeted the Montgomery market, but some chains have announced cutbacks that will impact the area.

Perhaps the hardest hit sector is consumer electronics, where national retailers Circuit City and Best Buy are reporting difficulties.

Circuit City entered bankruptcy before the holiday shopping season and was counting on a sales surge to keep it afloat.

Best Buy remains profitable, but its profits fell sharply in the most recent quarter, prompting the chain to announce cost-cutting measures.

It will reduce its 2009 store openings by about 50 percent and offered most of its corporate employees buyouts, the company announced recently.

Other chains have announced a reduction in store openings.

Some, like Office Depot, announced closings to many of its stores. The chain will close in the first three months of this year more than 120 stores, including one at 4055 East Blvd.

Most of the stores are closing because of slow sales, while others are closing because of unfavorable leases.