Jan. 8--Retailers today will put to bed their worst holiday shopping season in decades. But unfortunately for the industry, a new calendar won't automatically wean consumers hooked on markdowns.

Analysts expect chains to slash year-end earnings and say they can't forecast 2009 results as consumer malaise and a recession tear into margins.

The winners of this season, characterized by discounts on top of discounts, can be counted on one hand.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Family Dollar Stores Inc., Grapevine-based GameStop Corp. and Beaumont-based Conn's Inc. are on the short list of chains posting positive December sales.

But many chains, including Plano-based J.C. Penney Co., are expected to report double-digit sales declines. And the industry as a whole is forecast to post a 1 percent decline in December sales, after posting a record 2.7 percent decline in November, based on an index of chain store results compiled by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs.

It would be the industry's worst performance since 1970.

"Retail earnings estimates were in free-fall throughout November and into December before slowing just ahead of Christmas," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics Inc. Now retailers are expected to turn in a seventh straight quarter of earnings declines, with a 19.3 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit. Without Wal-Mart's results, fourth-quarter earnings for the industry are expected to be down a whopping 27.5 percent.

Analysts don't expect retailers to say much about their earnings expectations for 2009.

"If we hear comments about the first quarter, that'll be good," Mr. Perkins said. "Expect to hear that conditions are too tough to predict."

Throughout the holiday season, shoppers said over and over that they were cutting back and spending more conservatively. They also held out for discounts, and some returned items that went on sale even before they could wear a holiday dress or give a Christmas gift. Americans bought fewer gift cards because they bought items that cost less than what they would have loaded onto the plastic.

Even luxury shoppers held back. Since last fall, some of the biggest monthly sales declines have come from Neiman Marcus, Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom.

Luxury goods suffered a 27.6 percent drop in December, according to figures released Wednesday by SpendingPulse, a data service provided by MasterCard Advisors that estimates U.S. retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks.