Jan. 12--As bad as 2008 was for the region's economy, our troubles won't be ending anytime soon.

The earliest economists foresee a recovery is the middle of this year, and most think that's optimistic. The end of 2009 or the first half of 2010 is more likely.

But the start of a recovery won't mean an instant shift from cloudy skies to sunshine. Economists worry that this recession could resemble an "L" more than a "U." In other words, when the economy stops declining, it could start moving sideways rather than sharply upward.

Lingering unemployment is also in the forecast. Even when business starts picking up, companies don't usually resume hiring right away. Instead, they tend to wait to see whether things stay better. The upshot: South Floridians can expect unemployment to rise above 8 percent -- possibly for as long as two years.

That translates to at least 230,000 people out of work in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties, an increase of 50,000 from today -- or an increase of 120,000 from a year ago.

But not everyone thinks it will be quite that bad. No one is offering a cheerful outlook for 2009, but economists differ widely on just how bad things will be.

"We're in a state of flux," said Tony Villamil, dean of the business school at St. Thomas University in Miami Gardens. "The old economic models are not working so well."

That said, Villamil, a former chief economist for the U.S. Commerce Department, is more optimistic than some of his colleagues, especially about Miami-Dade.

While other parts of the state have been heavily dependent on population growth -- which has now slowed -- to fuel their economies, Miami-Dade has a wider variety of business and particularly strong small-business and international trade sectors that offer some insulation from the downturn, Villamil said.

Hank Fishkind, a private economist in Orlando, agreed, adding that key South Florida trading partners in Latin America are doing better than the United States or Europe.

"I don't think they will have a recession" in Latin America, Fishkind said. "I think they will have a slowing of growth, but that's different from a contraction."

THE CONSENSUS

But there is little disagreement among economists that the South Florida job market will remain weak.

Fishkind's forecast calls for unemployment to peak at around 8 percent in Miami-Dade this year and at the same rate next year in Broward.

Sean Snaith, a University of Central Florida economist, is more pessimistic: He predicts a jobless rate of 7.5 percent in South Florida this year, followed by more than 8 percent in 2010 and 2011.