Jan. 21--An annual forecast of Kern oil drilling activity -- one of the industry's biggest local gatherings of the year -- may have fallen victim to fears that the longstanding event violates antitrust laws.

Lawyers at large, locally operating oil companies warned their executives not to speak at or even attend a dinner meeting Thursday at which they had been scheduled to share their 2009 drilling projections, people involved with the event said.

Members of the local oil industry said the forecast, now in its 19th year, would be missed if it were suspended. They said it provides information that helps oil service companies plan for the year ahead.

The meeting's last-minute change of plans confused many of the roughly 200 people who attended the gathering of the local chapter of the American Association of Drilling Engineers at the Rice Bowl restaurant on 18th Street.

"There was a lot of discussion about what happened, why it happened, what was going on and, you know, no answers," said Lonnie Kerley, a local officer of the association and an engineer with Plains Exploration & Production Co.

Five major oil producers were scheduled to make presentations at the meeting. But only Chevron Corp. did so. And attendees said Chevron's forecast did not provide the usual level of detail.

The other companies scheduled to present were Aera Energy LLC, Berry Petroleum Co., Plains and Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Two small independent oil producers gave forecasts as scheduled.

Representatives of Aera and Berry did not respond to requests for comment Tuesday.

A spokeswoman for Occidental denied that the company withdrew its participation out of fears it could be construed as anticompetitive.

"The concern here is not antitrust issues," spokesman Susie Geiger wrote in an e-mail, "but rather our desire not to provide drilling expenditure and well count projections to other companies in these times of budgetary reviews based on lower oil prices." She declined to elaborate.

But Frank Hutton, a drilling engineer with Occidental of Elk Hills, said he was advised by Occidental's legal department to avoid the meeting "based on antitrust laws and collusion."

Independent producer Chad Hathaway said the companies are being too careful.

"They're living in fear," said the Bakersfield oil and drilling executive, who presented a forecast of his activity at the meeting.

In the past, such presentations have typically featured statements by oil producers on how many oil wells they plan to drill over the next 12 months, and where. The meeting is sometimes called a "liar's club" because some of the forecasts later prove to have been exaggerated.

It was unclear Tuesday whether the event would continue next year, and who might participate if it does.

Across the country, executives are becoming increasingly nervous about sharing information at similar industry forecasts, said Andy Ellis, past president of the association's national board.

"People for whatever reason are getting tight-lipped," Ellis said. As a result, he added, the meetings have become less useful.

Some companies have acted to protect themselves against antitrust charges by spelling out meeting rules ahead of time, prohibiting discussion of subjects such as price and volume, said Joe Leimkulher, national president of the association.

Even so, he brushed off fears that local industry forecasts such as the one Thursday night violate antitrust laws. He said the information shared "is all public information" in that oil producers file drilling permit applications with regulators well in advance.

"It's not like there's information that's offered at this meeting and it's only available at this meeting," he said.

-----

To see more of The Bakersfield Californian, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.bakersfield.com.

Copyright (c) 2009, The Bakersfield Californian

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

NYSE:PXP, NYSE:CVX, NYSE:BRY, NYSE:OXY,

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.