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Spoiling for a Fight? Analysts Say They Are Expecting Altria to Cut the Prices of Moist Tobacco in a 'Skoal Sunday' Move Against Reynolds
Sunday, January 25, 2009 6:11 AM


(Source: Winston-Salem Journal)trackingBy Richard Craver, Winston-Salem Journal, N.C.

Jan. 25--PHILIP MORRIS USED "MARLBORO FRIDAY" -- a stunning 20 percent price cut on the brand in April 1993 -- to chop away at R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co.'s cigarette sales and cement its top market share.

Altria Group Inc., Morris' parent company, appears to be aiming for a "Skoal Sunday" for the moist-tobacco brand it recently acquired in its $10.4 billion deal for UST.

The implications could be significant for Reynolds in terms of sales and jobs since the company is staking its future on smokeless tobacco products, particularly its Conwood subsidiary.

But as the tobacco manufacturer invests more resources into innovation, and as it pushes hard for language creating a niche for tobacco products with reduced health risk in any potential federal regulation of the industry, a sequel to Marlboro Friday may be around the corner.

Analysts say they expect that next Sunday, Altria will increase the price discount for Skoal and Copenhagen to $1 in the Southeast. It represents between a $60 million to $70 million increase in promotional spending on the brands by Altria.

Grizzly, the discount brand of Conwood, is sold in the Triad for an average retail price of $2.22 a can. That's about 44 percent lower than Skoal and Copenhagen because there is no current price promotion on those brands.

But with the $1 price discount, Skoal and Copenhagen would be about $2.99 a can on average.

David Adelman, an analyst with Morgan Stanley, said that the strategy represents Altria's bid to bolster Skoal and Copenhagen's market share for moist-tobacco sales.

"While this program is currently scheduled to run through March, we believe that spending at least of this level will essentially be a permanent pricing reset," Adelman said.

Some analysts said that the $1 price cut could be enough to convince former Skoal users to switch back after turning to Grizzly because of the lower price.

Skoal, Copenhagen and Grizzly all have between 22 percent and 24 percent U.S. market share, according to Bill Godshall, the executive director of SmokeFree Pennsylvania. Godshall is an outspoken advocate of noncombustible tobacco products as a reduced-risk option for smokers.

Conwood has been a bright spot for Reynolds.

The division posted a 10 percent increase in operating profit in the third quarter, with Grizzly delivering double-digit volume growth. Reynolds is moving ahead with expanding its Conwood operations in Tennessee.




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