Jan. 28--In Najaf, the heart of Shiite Muslim Iraq, pedestrians linger on the sidewalks of a busy bazaar, men smoke fruit-flavored shisha tobacco in cafes and a new first-class hotel with sparkling marble floors and dripping chandeliers is almost full. The battered capital of Baghdad seems much farther than 100 miles away.

Beneath this veneer of calm, however, an uneasy power struggle among southern Iraq's Shiite majority has emerged. In simple terms, the political battle can be understood in near opposites: nationalism vs. federalism, status quo vs. change, secularism vs. religion.

The Shiite parties that are vying for several hundred seats in Saturday's provincial elections are the State of Law coalition, affiliated with Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki and his Dawa party, and its opponent, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. Candidates from two party slates backed by the populist cleric Muqtada al Sadr also have entered the race.

CRUCIAL VOTE

The splintering among Shiite parties in this crucial vote points to the kind of Iraq -- fractured, very likely -- that U.S. troops could leave behind as they withdraw in the coming years.

"It will be a turning point in deciding the political map of Iraq," said Zuhair al Hakim, a spokesman for the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.

A few years ago, Najaf, one of the holiest sites for Shiites because of its gilded Imam Ali shrine, was the site of fierce battles between U.S. and Iraqi forces and militiamen from Sadr's Mahdi Army. For now, at least, the bloodletting has stopped.

Signs of the election season are everywhere. Candidate banners flap above the streets and posters paper storefront walls. Little boys toss campaign cards through open windows as cars idle in checkpoint traffic.

On Saturday, the head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq made a campaign stop at a soccer stadium, speaking to several thousand jubilant supporters. Shielded by a glass cage and flanked by dozens of armed guards, Abdul Aziz al Hakim urged voters to cast their ballots, pick competent candidates and pitch in to monitor the polls.

"We want to develop the public services," he said. "We want to change Najaf into an international city."

Founded by exiles in Iran in 1982, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq has called for creating a semiautonomous region in the south, not unlike Kurdistan in the north. Such power would enable the party to seize control of the region's rich oil reserves and religious sites.

"Having regions and federalism will strengthen local economies, bring more job opportunities and protect the provinces from coups and dictatorships," Hakim said.