Unlike the national recessions dating to 1991 that largely missed Montana, this one won't let us escape the ugly meltdown.

"We thought the national recession was going to miss Montana and this would be the third time in a row it missed," said Paul Polzin, former director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana.

Polzin told a crowd at Montana State University Billings on Tuesday that the bureau's last prediction in January 2008 misjudged some future economic developments. In January, it was assumed the national recession wouldn't hurt Montana much because the slowdown would be concentrated in industries that aren't prominent here - subprime mortgages, financial services and autos.

By July, the bureau revised its Montana forecast downward. By September, Polzin said, things had deteriorated so badly that "the world is now starting-to fall apart."

By December, it was obvious this recession won't be short or mild for the country or Montana, he said.

What does 2009 hold?

The recession that began in December 2007 is expected to peak this December, Polzin said, making this a moderate recession like the ones from 1981 to 1982 and 1972 to 1975.

"Even though this current recession is among the worst since the 1930s, it certainly isn't in the same league as the Great Depression," he said.

This time, national unemployment should peak at 9 or 10 percent, which is about the same as the 1980s. In the 1930s, unemployment ran 15 percent to 25 percent.

Growth in Montana this year is expected to be an anemic 0.5 percent, Polzin said, depending on how many announced layoffs actually happen.

"If that materializes, that's the slowest growth in Montana since 1988," Polzin said. "And there's a 50-50 chance that could be a minus 0.5 percent or maybe even lower."

Meanwhile, Yellowstone County could suffer a double whammy with the slowdown and layoffs in natural-resource industries, including oil and gas in Eastern Montana and Stillwater Mining Co. in Stillwater and Sweet Grass counties. That is because so many companies have their headquarters in Billings and workers spend money here. Retail trade is also slowing somewhat.

Labor income in Yellowstone County dropped 0.3 percent last year and is expected to do the same in '09, not counting farm workers.

On a brighter side, Polzin said prices have improved for copper and platinum, which could signal the end of the dramatic decline in commodities prices. However, those price improvements are only for a recent and very short period.

The Kalispell area might be the hardest hit because of mill closings and the drop in home construction.