Mar. 16--Amid the economic recession's job losses and layoffs, the number of commuters on Long Island's rails and roads has taken a noticeable drop, statistics show. And experts say the decline could strike a considerable blow to a complex transit system already struggling with an unprecedented financial deficit.

Two of Long Island's biggest carriers of commuters -- the Long Island Rail Road and the Long Island Expressway -- showed declines in use during the last quarter of 2008 when compared, month by month, with the same period in 2007.

While common logic holds that fewer people having jobs to go to would mean fewer people on the roads and trains, some experts said the effects of the downward trend may not be easily reversed, even after the economy turns around.

"The causes of [the drop] are pretty well known. ... The question is what the consequences of that are going to be," said Anthony Shorris, director of the Rudin Center for Transportation Policy and Management at New York University.

The decline in people getting from place to place is not isolated to New York. Nationally, there were a total of 3.8 billion fewer vehicle-miles traveled on the roads in 2008 than in 2007 -- a drop of 1.6 percent, according to the Federal Highway Administration.

"This isn't a little hiccup on a mountain," administration spokesman Doug Hecox said last week. "It's an absolute cliff compared to where we have been."

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which draws 45 percent of its total revenue from transit fares and another 14 percent from bridge and tunnel tolls, is seeing the effect on its bottom line. The MTA saw a $3.7-million decrease in fare revenue in January alone when compared with January 2008.

"The agencies are very sensitive to relatively small drops in their revenue streams, because it's a pretty big base," said Shorris. "So even relatively small drops are tens of millions of dollars a year."

The MTA already has appealed to Albany for a state bailout to address its unprecedented $1.2-billion deficit -- a shortfall that the agency's chief financial officer said could swell to $2 billion in 2010.

"Farebox, toll, as well as revenues from dedicated taxes will all likely be impacted if the economy continues its downward spiral," MTA spokesman Kevin Ortiz said in a statement.