Mar. 17--The White House's chief economist, Christina Romer, is a positive, cheery sort who doesn't fit the mold of the dour numbers-crunchers who delight in discussing economic cycles, multiplier effects and Keynesian theory. While intellect and expertise are key to Romer's work, an upbeat personality doesn't hurt in the middle of a tough recession.

As one of the principal authors of the Obama administration's $787 billion stimulus package, Romer, naturally, is an enthusiastic proponent. Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," she said the administration has assembled the "biggest, boldest recovery package in history" that is "incredible medicine" for the economy. "We fully expect it to work," she said.

Certainly, American taxpayers -- or more accurately their grandchildren, who will pay for the borrowing that is funding the stimulus -- hope so. The administration says the stimulus will raise gross domestic product 3.6 percent by the end of 2010 and create 3.5 million jobs -- figures developed by Romer and fellow economist Jared Bernstein.

Economics being slightly less reliable than meteorology, of course there are varying views.

One study gaining attention, produced in February by economists John F. Cogan, Tobias Cwik, John B. Taylor and Volker Wieland, challenges Romer's and Bernstein's conclusions.

Cogan & Co. write that the administration's estimated stimulus impact is six times greater than what they came up with in their simulations. Theirs showed a GDP gain of just 0.6 percent and only about 500,000 new jobs. Put in perspective, they write, the jobs number "is less than the 598,000 payroll jobs lost in the single month of January 2009."

Economists can (and will) debate the whys and wherefores on competing studies and forecasts. Yet the stimulus benefits advertised by the administration had something to do with its passage by Congress. Questions about the academic basis for those projected benefits are concerning, to say the least.

As The Wall Street Journal editorialized recently, if the stimulus produces less than 1 percent growth in GDP and only about a half-million new jobs, many will say the nearly $800 billion spent on the recovery package would have done more good if the money had been directed into business tax cuts or to fix the financial system.

Learning who is right in the discussion won't come for months, but Wall Street's reaction so far hasn't been a good harbinger. The administration gets the benefit of the doubt for awhile, but not indefinitely.

If the stimulus doesn't produce growth and job creation as advertised, then economist Romer's enthusiasm will come back like a giant boomerang.

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