Zacks Industry Rank Analysis is written by Charles Rotblut, CFA, Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com.

This week: Q1 Earnings: Winners and Losers

First-quarter profits are going to stink. The consensus projections call for S&P 500 profits of $16.33, which equates to a decrease of approximately 14% from a year prior.

On a company-specific basis, the numbers could be worse. Median earnings are likely to decline 19.3%. More than 10% of S&P 500 members are expected to report triple-digit drops in profits (57 companies with declines of 100% or more). Conversely, just 8 companies will please shareholders with increases of 100% or more.

Overall, 364 companies are forecast to report a year-over-year decrease in earnings. The actual number will be somewhat less given the probability of positive surprises, but first-quarter profits will clearly reflect the ongoing recession.

Behind the headline numbers will be a mixed bag of reports, with some winners and some losers.

Potential Winners

The biggest winners could be oil refiners such as Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO). TSO could see a profit gain of 160%.

The drop in oil prices and improvement in margins are helping these companies. Refiners are dependent on the crack spread (the difference between what they pay for oil and how much they sell gasoline and heating oil). An upward, albeit volatile, improvement in the crack spread - combined with cost-cutting measures - has helped profits and offset the impact of lower demand.

TSO is a Zacks #2 Rank ("buy") stocks and are classified in Oil Refining & Marketing (http://at.zacks.com/?id=4822).

Medical Profits Growing, As Expected

Investors preferring a group not dependent on commodity prices may want to look at medical care companies. Several of these companies should report double-digit growth, including Stericycle Inc. (Nasdaq: SRCL).

The advantage of medical companies is that they are less economically sensitive. Therefore, while their rate of growth won't wow anybody, these companies are capable of delivering good numbers even in the midst of a recession.

Stericycle handles medical waste. The company gave a bullish outlook for 2009 last month and the consensus earnings estimate has been rising. Though SRCL has a pricey valuation, it also has a history of topping estimates.