Mar. 26--Hope for a speedy end to the economic downturn was in short supply at Wednesday's Kern County Economic Summit, even as one invited speaker expressed optimism that the region could weather the recession better than the rest of California.

Focusing on problems in the housing market, tightening credit and rising unemployment, two economists spelled out serious challenges to the local and national economies -- as well as measures under way to address them -- for an audience of hundreds of local business professionals.

"The good news is, (consumers) are saving. The bad news is, they're saving," said speaker Gary C. Zimmerman, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Cal State Bakersfield economist Abbas Grammy shared expectations that the U.S. economy could begin to improve late this year or in early 2010.

Though he said California's own recovery could take longer than that, Grammy predicted that Kern's economy could turn around more quickly because of the county's wealth of oil and its relatively low cost of doing business.

Zimmerman, after providing a sobering view of the national economy, said a turnaround would be slow but that, more importantly, it would come.

The nation's gross domestic product, a key measure of economic health, looks set to decline by 2.6 percent this year before turning around and growing in 2010, he said.

Another speaker Wednesday, agriculture banking adviser Karol Aure-Flynn, detailed mixed trends that could benefit Kern's large farming industry.

Despite uncertainty about how domestic and foreign diets will change in hard economic times, Aure-Flynn said California is well-positioned to meet the world's demand for food -- providing farmers are given access to the state's water supply.

"Local demand for agricultural products continues despite the downturn," said Aure-Flynn, executive director of Rabobank International's Food and Agribusiness Research and Advisory unit.

Conference attendee John Ritchie, vice president of Paramount Agricultural Cos., said Wednesday's predictions were consistent with what he has heard elsewhere: economic stabilization in late 2009 and an "uptick" in 2010.

"I hope that's the case," he said.

Another businessman in the audience, Tom Pasek, CEO of Bakersfield technology company Shaggy Dog Solutions LLC, said he generally agreed with the outlooks presented at the conference. But he predicted that inflation could become a bigger challenge than expected.

Attendee Barry Hibbard was encouraged by Wednesday's large audience, which he said suggests that Bakersfield's business community remains engaged and mutually supportive.

"I was surprised today that it was full," said the vice president of Lebec agribusiness and development company Tejon Ranch Co. "I didn't know what to expect."

The ninth annual summit inside the DoubleTree Hotel Bakersfield was presented by the Kern Economic Development Corp., Cal State Bakersfield and the Greater Bakersfield Chamber of Commerce.

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