Mar. 27--More people in this area are without a job, according to February unemployment numbers released by the state Department of Labor on Wednesday.

While area officials said they have not had an opportunity to break down the data to see what segments are most effected, they were able to offer some observations Wednesday on jobs and the recession.

Statewide, the unemployment rate after seasonal adjustment rose from 7 percent in January to 7.8 percent last month, the highest level since June 1993, according to a release from the Labor Department. Since a peak in August 2008, there has been a statewide decrease of 145,800 jobs, with trade, transportation and utilities showing the largest drop -- 46,200. Education has showed the largest gain in that period, with 24,000, the release states.

In the four-county area, Otsego County had the lowest unemployment percentage, 9.4 percent, and Schoharie County had the highest rate, 11.6 percent. The four counties, including Delaware and Chenango, had higher rates in February than in January 2009 or February 2008, and about 700 more unemployed than the month before.

In any recession of this severity and extent, it's hard for economists to predict how long it will last, said Kevin Price, executive director of the Chenango-Delaware-Otsego Workforce.

The layoffs have occurred through a trickle-down effect, starting at a few large area employers, such as Amphenol and Meadwestvaco in Sidney, and spreading through the economy as businesses look to cut their expenses and hold down costs.

All indicators are that the recession will end this year, Price said, but the lag time could be two years more. During that period, the economy will still churn, and there will still be some job losses as not all sectors recover at the same rate, Price said.

While there has been growth in some areas now, the ratio of job openings to those seeking jobs is not good, he said.

"We are seeing growth in small businesses for entry and skilled levels," Price said. "We are seeing growth in health care, education, as well as some segments of manufacturing for people with certain engineering and technical degrees."

This includes areas like food production, like at Kraft at Walton. Sometimes, he said, it's a matter of not having the skills to match a job opening.

"We are encouraging people to come to CDO Workforce centers and explore possibilities to receive training so they can build their skill sets," he said.

Bob Augenstern is director of the Southern Tier East Regional Planning Development Board, a governmental unit involved with economic development across an eight-county area. He said the unemployment problem is greatest in the manufacturing and financial sectors.

"People don't have to buy cars, but they have to buy food," he said, a fact that is also true for education and health care.

This helps explain the lower unemployment rate in Otsego County compared with its neighbors, as Otsego's major employers include two colleges, two hospitals and agriculture.

But when the recession ends, he said, the area probably won't have as sharp a turnaround as neighboring counties.

The problem in trying to predict when the labor picture will improve, Augenstern said, is shown by how long it took economists to determine there was a recession.

Although the national recession officially started more than a year ago, he said, the sharp rise in unemployment is more recent.

Tim Hayes, the director of the Center for Economic and Community Development at the State University College at Oneonta, said the rural areas of the state will probably be more affected by the downturn because metropolitan areas are getting more from the federal stimulus package.

He said he is uncertain about when the situation will improve or what will drive a turnaround. But he was confident that in the long term, "We are going to get out of this."

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