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For Silicon Valley and U.S., A Few Bright Spots Amid the Economic Gloom
Friday, March 27, 2009 1:57 PM


(Source: San Jose Mercury News)trackingBy Pete Carey and Steve Johnson, San Jose Mercury News, Calif.

Mar. 27--The sudden burst of good news about the economy last week buoyed the stock market and appeared to signal that the housing market is nearing a bottom while the pace of general economic decline slows.

But there are months to go before the economy begins to grow, economists say.

"There are going to be glimmerings of hope" throughout the recession, said Jon Haveman, an economist with Beacon Economics in San Rafael. "But we haven't reached the bottom yet, although the pace of decline is likely to be slower throughout the rest of 2009 than it was in the fourth quarter of 2008. We expect continued decline through 2009, and recovery starting in early 2010."

The week brought newly aggressive efforts by the Obama administration to stabilize the economy, and some surprisingly positive statistics on retail sales and housing. But one of the last parts of the economy to turn around during recessions is the one that affects people most directly -- the job market. It will be some time, experts agree, before companies start hiring again.

Here's a look at some signs of life:

--Wall Street responded to the latest effort by the Treasury Department to revive the nation's banks by sending the Dow Jones industrial average up nearly 500 points Monday. By Friday, the Dow had had its best three-week stretch since September 1982, despite Friday's drop.

--Orders for durable manufactured goods -- including orders for computers -- rose unexpectedly in February by 3.4 percent following six months of decline, the Commerce Department reported. New orders for computers and related products were up 10.1 percent.

--Consumer spending rose for the second straight month in February, by 0.2 percent, after falling for six straight months, according to a Commerce Department report Friday.

--The California Association of Realtors said February home sales were up again, this time 83 percent from the year before, while an index it compiles of unsold homes on the market fell dramatically.

For Silicon Valley, the news about computer orders was especially welcome. In recent weeks, analysts have reported seeing evidence of business picking up for several computer-chip companies, including Santa Clara-based Intel, Nvidia of Santa Clara, Amtel of San Jose, LSI of Milpitas and Marvell of Santa Clara. Sales at chip companies are a bellwether for the broader technology industry.




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