logo


Can Movie Theater Stocks Keep Climbing?
Thursday, April 16, 2009 3:56 PM


(Source: Business Week)trackingBy Aaron Pressman

Who goes to the movies in April? A lot of people. And that has analysts and investors excited about the prospects for such movie theater owners as Regal Entertainment (RGC), Carmike Cinemas (CKEC), and Cinemark Holdings (CNK).

Led by a pack of modest hits like Hannah Montana: The Movie, starring teen sensation Miley Cyrus, and Fast and Furious, starring Vin Diesel, the past two weekends have shattered box office records for April. So far, total 2009 receipts are way up from last year as credit-crunched consumers have looked to leave their troubles behind and escape at the movies.

"People have assumed for years that home theater and DVDs were killing off the business," says money manager Steve Birenberg, president of Northlake Capital Management and the media sector blogger for market research firm SNL Kagan. "Now we're seeing that's not true and it's much more stable and sustainable than investors thought."

Over the recent Easter weekend, the top 12 films brought in $130 million, up 61% from the same weekend last year. The previous weekend, which took in $148 million, was the biggest draw ever in April. And that comes after first-quarter receipts rose by 10% to 15% from the same period a year ago.

Can Earnings Fuel big stock gains? Almost half of that box office revenue goes right into the coffers of theater operators -- not to mention the benefits of increased sales of popcorn, soda, and other ultra-high-margin items at concession stands. "These are really strong numbers, especially when you don't see a real blockbuster in there," says James Marsh, a Piper Jaffray analyst who follows the companies.

Regal's stock price has already gained 42% in the past three months over growing excitement about the first quarter's box office boom. But at about 14 a share, Regal has only retraced the stock's prior three-month drop. Money manager Birenberg sees further upside because the revenue increase will fuel an even larger jump in earnings per share. Much of the company's expenses are fixed costs -- owning and operating thousands of cineplexes around the country. When more people buy movie tickets, revenue growth far exceeds growth in expenses. And the same is true for shares of Carmike, up 30% over the past three months, and Cinemark, up 25%, Birenberg says.

The summer months, typically the biggest box office season of the year, also look promising. That's despite a tough comparison because of last summer's Batman blockbuster, The Dark Knight, which grossed over $500 million in the U.S., including a $155 million opening weekend.




(0)
No Comments
Post Comment
Name:  
Alert for new comments:
Your email:
Your Website:
Title:
Comments:
   
 
 
 
 
   
 

  
Related Press Releases
Advertisement
Popular Articles
Advertisement
Partner Center
Fundamental data is provided by Zacks Investment Research, market data is provided by AlphaTrade. , and Commentary and Press Releases provided by Quotemedia