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State's Biggest Companies Down but Not Out: As Wall Street Panicked, Minnesota's Biggest Companies Kept Cool, Made Tough Choices and Planned for What They Believe Are Better Days Ahead. They Are Still Waiting.
Friday, April 17, 2009 10:54 PM


(Source: Star Tribune, Minneapolis)trackingBy John J. Oslund and Patrick Kennedy, Star Tribune, Minneapolis

Apr. 19--To say 2008 was a bad year does not begin to cover it.

Falling home values, failing lenders and frozen credit markets conspired to ignite a global recession the likes of which we have not seen since the 1930s. Never has so much market value been lost by so many Minnesota companies in so few months -- and for reasons that, frustratingly, were mostly beyond their control.

By August, credit markets had seized. By October, Congress had passed a financial bailout as massive as it was controversial. Consumer spending, already soft compared with 2007 levels, all but evaporated in the third and fourth quarters as layoffs spread and unemployment surged over 8 percent. By November, the markets hit 12-year lows.

Through this storm, Minnesota's biggest public companies persevered. Sales at the Star Tribune 100 grew nearly 6 percent in 2008, although profits fell 14 percent as the recession's grip tightened. Employment grew by 1 percent, or about 14,000 jobs. But that figure generally does not include layoffs made so far in 2009.

Market values of the state's 100 largest companies plummeted 38.7 percent, in lockstep with other major market indexes. Star Tribune 100 companies collectively shed $190 billion in market value, the largest such loss since this survey began 18 years ago. (Market value, also called market capitalization, is a company's stock price multiplied by the number of its shares outstanding.)

Of the 94 companies that lost market value last year, 23 dropped $1 billion or more. The losers list reads like a Who's Who of Minnesota Fortune 500 companies: U.S. Bancorp, Mosaic, 3M, Medtronic, Target, Ameriprise and Travelers.

Just six ST100 companies saw their market values rise in the 12 months ended March 31, 2009. The biggest gainer was comfort-food chain Buffalo Wild Wings, suggesting that beer, wings and wide-screen TVs are one formula for success in a distressed economy.

Strong fundamentals

Yet for all the depressing headlines, the fundamentals at Minnesota's biggest companies remain sound. Consider:

-- Year-over-year sales increased at 68 companies in 2008; 32 saw declines.

-- 75 posted profits while 25 suffered losses.

-- 48 companies added jobs in 2008 (compared with 62 in 2007). Of those, 12 added 1,000 or more, including Best Buy, UnitedHealth Group and U.S. Bancorp.

Five companies held headcount flat, including Supervalu and Alliant Technology.

Forty-seven cut staffing, including four that cut 1,000 or more jobs. The biggest job cutters were Target, hair salon operator Regis Corp. and Donaldson Co., which makes industrial filtration products.

The jobs reported by ST100 companies reflect their payrolls worldwide, so they do not necessarily translate into Minnesota jobs. Unemployment statewide reached 8.2 percent in March, slightly below the national rate of 8.5 percent. Minnesota state economist Tom Stinson said there is "more bad news to come" on the jobs front.

From the February peak to the December trough, Minnesota lost 54,000 jobs in 2008, Stinson said. Another 49,000 jobs disappeared in January, February and March. And he expects another 20,000 lost jobs by early 2010.

"The Minnesota job market is not expected to start a recovery until spring of 2010," he said, adding that statewide employment likely will not return to prerecession levels until 2012.

Signs of moderation

Our annual assessment of Minnesota's largest companies reveals a diverse corporate landscape that remains strong in financial services, retail, manufacturing and health care. Minnesota is home to 25 Fortune 500 companies, the highest concentration of headquarters firms per capita in the nation. Those big firms, and their high-paying headquarters jobs, have long been significant contributors to the local economy and the state's cultural climate.

But Minnesota's industrial diversity was no match for the panic of 2008.

"No one is getting out untouched," said Scott Anderson, vice president and senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. Anderson said he sees signs of moderation in the U.S. recession but predicts "potholes on the road to recovery."

First the good news: The big declines in consumer spending we saw in the third and fourth quarters are moderating, he said. And the housing market is "tentatively close to a bottom ... and that's what got us into this whole thing four years ago." Also, the credit crisis "appears to have eased substantially from last year. ... Right now we are in a refinancing boom. Hopefully, that will be sustained," Anderson said.




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