Apr. 21--The economy will eventually return to something resembling the healthy conditions of a few years ago, but consumers may have learned a few lessons they'll put into practice for a long time after that, some experts believe.

Others disagree with this prediction, suggesting the lessons about excessive spending learned during this recession will be forgotten quickly. Several Inland consumers say they expect the pattern of buying binges will return not long after economic stability does.

A recent national study by Citigroup Global Wealth Management suggests the American consumer will come away from this recession a little smarter and a lot more careful. The survey, featured Monday in CNNMoney.com, found consumers will be careful about what they buy and how they invest well after the recession ends.

Investment strategist and New York University business professor Edward Kerschner, who authored the study, does not believe consumers will clamp down on spending altogether, nor will they spend heavily. "Thrifty" was the word he used to describe the pattern he expects, and consumers are likely to remember the lessons of this downturn for a while

"We're seeing a shift from 'conspicuous consumption' to 'conscious consumption,' " Kerschner told CNNMoney.com.

But several Inland consumers say the pattern of spending like mad, buying on credit and making risky investments will come back sooner than Kerschner predicts.

Karen Virgil, who works as a loan officer in Riverside, likened the lessons of this recession to the childbirth experience. Many mothers suffering through labor pains scream they will never go through this again, only to become pregnant again in a few years.

"In the short term, I think we will have learned a lesson," said Virgil, 50, of Riverside. "Then, we'll just go back to our old habits."

Richard Martinez, a 68-year-old retired school custodian who lives in Riverside, said he and his wife, also a school district retiree, will probably be very careful with their own investment accounts because the people who sell those products will probably be more aggressive than usual.

"Everyone else will probably just go back to what they were doing," Martinez said. "They'll just think that this recession was something that happens every 10 years, just a little worse."

Andy Montgomery, chief executive officer for Palm Desert-based El Paseo Bank, disagrees that Inland Southern Californians will return to the free-wheeling days of the first half of the decade, where seemingly every gain on home equity was immediately cashed in for a new big-ticket purchase.

"Our grandparents' generation was fundamentally changed, and it became much more frugal, because of the Great Depression," Montgomery said. "I think this will be the generation that, in 10 years, is still saying, 'I don't really need a new car, this one still runs fine.' "

How long this era of thrift lasts will largely depend on the length of this recession, Montgomery said. Unemployment in Riverside County was 13.2 percent in March, and economists don't believe employers will start hiring in significant numbers until 2011.

"I agree this (thrift) will be long-term, and I think that it's a good thing," Montgomery said.

'back Down to earth'

Consumer spending amounts to about 70 percent of America's gross domestic product, and if everyone stopped buying at once and saved everything it would be a problem.

But Jamil Dada, an investment advisor with Provident Financial Holdings in Riverside, said that people were spending too rapidly for years. He agrees that people have to change that habit, even if it took the worst economic slump in 80 years to accomplish that.

"This downturn has brought us back down to earth," Dada said. "It's almost like we're being forced into saving. Now, we're learning a new habit, and it will help."

Reach Jack Katzanek at 951-368-9553 or at jkatzanek@PE.com

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