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Tough Freight Environment Weighing on Landstar
Monday, April 20, 2009 3:52 PM


(Source: The Florida Times-Union)trackingBy Mark Basch, The Florida Times-Union, Jacksonville

Apr. 20--Landstar System Inc. and CSX Corp. have a lot in common right now. The two Jacksonville-based transportation companies are experiencing low demand for their freight-hauling services because of the recession. And both companies reported last week first-quarter earnings per share that were 18 cents lower than the first quarter of 2008.

But while railroad company CSX's stock rose $2.20 to $30.59 Wednesday after its first-quarter report, trucking company Landstar fell as much as $2.34 to $32.77 on Thursday, before recovering to close that day at $34.45.

What's the difference between the two? For one thing, CSX's earnings of 62 cents a share were 11 cents higher than the consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Landstar's earnings of 27 cents were 2 cents lower than the Thomson forecast.

Secondly, CSX's stock is currently priced fairly cheap based on projected earnings, while Landstar is priced high. Even after the stock rose on Wednesday, CSX was trading at just 10.7 times its projected 2009 earnings. Landstar was trading at 20.8 times its expected earnings after the stock fell on Thursday.

Analysts like Landstar's "asset-light" business model, in which it doesn't own trucks but contracts with drivers who have their own trucks to haul freight. That keeps expenses in check when business is down, but the company is still facing declining revenue this year.

"It is the worst freight environment I have seen in my 20-plus years at Landstar," CEO Henry Gerkens said in a conference call with analysts Thursday.

Gerkens is hoping to see improvement in the economy in the second half of the year. But until then, Landstar's stock is unlikely to rise much.

"We are maintaining our market perform rating on Landstar as we continue to believe the current environment will be tough for both asset and asset-light players," Wachovia Securities analyst Justin Yagerman said in a research note Thursday. Yagerman had actually downgraded Landstar from "outperform" to "market perform" on Monday, before the earnings report, because he thought the stock price had gotten too high.

Robert W. Baird analyst Jon Langenfeld downgraded Landstar from "outperform" to "neutral" on Thursday, because of the stock price.

"Given our expectation for continued difficult trends, we would look for pullbacks to the upper $20s before becoming more constructive in the near term," Langenfeld said in his research note.




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