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Towering Vacancies: Office Market Hits the Skids
Thursday, April 30, 2009 11:01 AM


(Source: Business Week)trackingBy Ellen Gibson

When the housing market began collapsing across the developed world, commercial real estate remained a bastion for builders. But now the global recession is dragging it down, too. Central business districts that only a year ago were crowded with construction projects are emptying out as office tenants cut staff and operations. Building values are sinking, while delinquencies on securitized loans have tripled in the past six months.

The abrupt downturn in commercial real estate is punishing cities as varied as Detroit, Dallas, and Hartford, where downtown office vacancy rates top 20%. Unoccupied space is piling up quickly in San Antonio, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and San Jose. Outside the U.S., high-profile towers have been halted everywhere from Dubai to Santiago, Chile.

New York, though, may be the epicenter of the bust. The world's biggest office market, with roughly 350 million square feet of floor space, New York added 2.9 million square feet of vacant property in 2009's first quarter alone -- more than the entire Empire State Building. In that same period, calculates commercial real estate brokerage CB Richard Ellis (CBG), rents slid 14.6% to an average of $57.35 per square foot, the largest quarterly drop on record.

At 8.5%, New York's office vacancy rate is still well under the U.S. average of 14.7%. But with virtually no demand for new space, that percentage is likely to hit double digits within months, putting New York's recovery well behind that of cities such as London, where some analysts and investors think the worst may be over.

Tenants Wanted Steven J. Pozycki could add to the glut in New York next year. Pozycki, founder of SJP Properties in Parsippany, N.J., is plugging away at a 40-story tower in Midtown Manhattan with 1.1 million square feet of space. The $1 billion project, a joint venture with Prudential Real Estate Investors, was started in early 2007, when property values were still soaring and vacancy rates were at all-time lows. It is scheduled to open next spring but has yet to find a single tenant.

The developer had intended to anchor his building, known as 11 Times Square, with financial companies and law firms. After these would-be renters began teetering, several other developers canceled projects at earlier stages. Boston Properties (BXP) called off plans for a nearby tower in March. A few weeks later, developer Larry Silverstein said he may delay construction at the World Trade Center site for decades. But Pozycki says that by last fall construction on his site had gone "past the point of no return."

The slide in the office sector mirrors trouble throughout the nonresidential real estate industry. On Apr.




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