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GasMart 2009 Analyst Sees $8 NatGas Prices By Year's End
Friday, May 08, 2009 2:53 PM


(Source: Business Wire)trackingThe opportunity is now for natural gas buyers because front-month futures prices are likely headed to $8 before the end of the year, according to Paul Corby, senior vice president of Planalytics. Corby will be offering the market analysis behind his forecast at GasMart 2009, the annual meeting of major natural gas buyers and sellers coming up in Chicago May 19-21.

While over the last few months natural gas futures have been trading at lows not seen in over six years, futures prices now have taken a turn to the upside and Corby's advice to buyers is to lock in supplies before it's too late.

"I think we've probably seen a bottom here in gas futures. I've been bullish for a long time here because I actually thought we got down too low in the first place," said Corby, who will be part of an energy trading and risk management panel. "I know we are brimming with gas and there are a lot of people out there thinking that we are going to see $2.50, but I have never been in that camp. Maybe I am one of the brave few, but I am long-term bullish on all commodities. That said, gas futures might come off a bit more, but I'm looking for $8 gas going into 2010."

Going forward in gas futures, Corby advised people to hedge now. "I want people hedging out through 2010 because you have to grab these prices," he told Natural Gas Intelligence. "Don't be greedy because you can really lose out and miss a decent price. Take the November through March winter strip. I advised people buy at $5.50 and it ended up dropping to $5.30, so people could have stolen another 20 cents. However, those who held out thinking it might get down to $5 lost out, because today that strip trades at $6."

While Corby's panel will pull together the trading side, ConocoPhillips' Will Hussey, Nexen's David Slater, and John Hattenberger, president of Gazprom Marketing & Trading USA, will discuss supply fundamentals. The executives will be on hand to give their thoughts on issues such as: how long will the oversupply last? what about rig count, shut-ins and LNG imports? and the shape of the market to come.

GasMart's 450 attendees will hear from these industry leaders and others in the conference program and then discuss the issues with other wholesale market participants in the Market Network Center at this 23rd annual conference and trade show, hosted by Intelligence Press, Inc.

Greg Mocek, former director of enforcement for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will offer advice on navigating the newly developing regulatory landscape for futures, over-the-counter and derivatives markets. Mocek, now a partner specializing in energy, derivatives and government affairs at McDermott Will & Emery, will discuss "Loophole Carpet Bombing, Market Mutations and Trader Liability."

Larry Borgard, President and Chief Operating Officer - Utilities, Integrys Energy Group, Inc., will lead off the program, discussing how distributors are reassessing strategies for today's energy market with its dramatic changes in energy prices, the credit markets, and the stated policies of a new administration in Washington.

End users have their own panel presentation at GasMart led by Alex Strawn, Purchasing Group Manager, North American Energy for Procter & Gamble, and a companion meeting of the Process Gas Consumers Group. Those wanting basic trading and risk management info can attend separate workshops sponsored by BP Energy and NiSource's EnergyUSA.

Attendees also will hear Porter Bennett of Bentek Inc., the nation's expert on natural gas infrastructure, explain how new shale gas developments are rerouting the natural gas pipeline grid.

Other program participants and/or sponsors include representatives of IntercontinentalExchange, NECC, NGX, Thomson Reuters, PA Consulting, Allegro Development, eSignal, SolArc, Telvent dtn, REXTAG, and the Defense Energy Support Center.

Go to gasmart.com to see the full program and the attendee list so far. Register online and book your room at the GasMart headquarters hotel, the Sheraton Chicago Hotel & Towers.

A service of YellowBrix, Inc.



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