May 28--Truck shipments usually serve as an indicator of the overall economy by previewing consumer expenditures, but a recent sharp decline may not be as onerous for the national picture as it might appear.

Truck tonnage in April declined 13.2 percent compared with a year ago, the worst year-over-year decrease in 13 years, the American Trucking Associations reported. That followed a 12.2 percent tonnage decline in March from a year ago.

But inventories remain high with the poor economy so business efforts to decrease their stockpiles of goods along with the recession is taking a toll on truck freight, ATA chief economist and vice president Bob Costello said.

"I don't believe trucking will provide the big lead time to substantial economic growth unless the massive inventory correction ends soon," Costello said in an e-mail.

"If inventories are too high, which they are, the supply chain doesn't need as much transportation services," Costello said in an e-mail.

Costello said trucking results won't provide the lead time to show substantial economic growth until the massive inventory correction ends.

ATA does not reveal actual tonnage figures on a monthly basis to non-members of the Arlington,Va.-based industry group. The ATA said trucks hauled 10.2 billion tons of freight in 2008.

The association's reports have shown seven successive percentage declines in truck tonnage since October.

And while the dollar value of inventories has fallen, sales have decreased as much or more, resulting in inventories that are still too high for current sales levels, Costello said.

That means it could be a few months for truck freight to hit bottom.

Reporter Ted Jackovics can be reached at (813) 259-7817.

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