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Triangle Jobless Rate is Steady: Constancy Hints at Optimism
Saturday, May 30, 2009 6:54 AM


(Source: The News & Observer)trackingBy Alan M. Wolf, The News & Observer, Raleigh, N.C.

May 30--The Triangle's jobless rate held steady at 8.8 percent last month.

It's another signal that the worst of the recession may be nearing an end, but that job seekers hoping for relief shouldn't hold their breath.

The latest monthly data were released Friday by the N.C. Employment Security Commission and adjusted for seasonal effects by Wachovia economists in Charlotte to provide more accurate statistical comparisons.

Statewide, unemployment was unchanged at 10.8 percent in April, the ESC reported last week.

"There is no question that the rate of deterioration in the economy has lessened considerably and that is an optimistic sign," said Wachovia senior economist Mark Vitner. "But we're not seeing any evidence that hiring is picking up."

March's jobless data from the ESC and adjusted by Wachovia, which had shown an 8.3 percent rate, was revised higher.

In the past year, the Raleigh-Cary-Durham region has lost more than 21,000 jobs. Big employers such as IBM, GlaxoSmithKline and Nortel Networks have shed hundreds of workers to reduce costs and ride out the downturn. Employers of all sizes remain reluctant to add many workers until there is solid evidence of economic recovery.

Vitner cautioned that unemployment could surge higher this summer as fresh graduates enter the job market, and workers who were laid off this year see their severance end and begin filing claims for jobless benefits.

Still, this region remains relatively healthy compared to much of the state. Charlotte, the state's largest metropolitan area, had a seasonally adjusted jobless rate of 11.4 percent in April and has lost more than 50,000 jobs in the past year.

Charlotte has a larger concentration of manufacturing and financial service jobs, sectors hit hard during the slump.

"Government jobs, health care and the universities really help insulate the Triangle," Vitner said. "They haven't done as good a job in this recession, but they still help."

But looming budget cuts could hurt state and university employees, causing local workers' families further economic pain.

"Sizable reductions in public spending will result in greater levels of joblessness and postpone any recovery," said John Quinterno, a researcher at the N.C. Budget & Tax Center in Raleigh, in a statement.

There were 46,094 unemployed people in the Raleigh area who were actively seeking work in April, the ESC reports. The Durham figure was 19,157.

Across the state, nearly two-thirds of unemployment benefits in April were filed by employers on behalf of workers, said ESC spokesman Larry Parker. Those "attached claims" suggest that employers expect to bring workers back if the economy picks up.

The ESC paid $268.1 million in jobless benefits during April, down slightly from March. The commission has borrowed $473.4 million since mid-February from the federal government to pay claims.

The ESC plans to repay that money by next year as it collects taxes on employers, avoiding having to pay any interest, Parker said.

alan.wolf@newsobserver.com or 919-829-4572

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