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NEDA Seeks Stimulus Package for 2010 After Dismal 1Q Growth
Tuesday, June 02, 2009 1:01 PM


(Source: The Manilla Times)trackingBy Darwin G. Amojelar and Maricel E. Burgonio, The Manila Times, Philippines

Jun. 3--THE National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said it will recommend another stimulus package next year to accelerate economic growth, but this could lead to a wider the funding gap as the government still struggles with its revenue collection.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ralph Recto said it would recommend another stimulus package next year that would be equivalent to about 3 percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP).

"Chances are that would be more or less the recommendation," he said.

A proxy for economic output, GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country in a year.

For this year, the government has set aside P330 billion for the Economic Resiliency Plan (ERP), or about 4.1 percent of GDP, for pump priming the economy to shield the country from the ravaging effects of the global crisis.

The ERP aims to save and create jobs; protect the poorest of the poor, returning overseas Filipino workers and workers in export industries; ensure low and stable prices to support consumer spending; and enhance competitiveness in preparation for the global rebound.

"You will have to continue spending next year as well because there's still a global contraction. Any recovery would take longer [so] you have to develop your domestic economy. There's [going to] be a rebound in exports and world trade but it would be a V-type growth rate--a big down and a big up. It's [going] be that way," Recto said.

Because of this, the NEDA chief sees that the budget deficit would be wider next year. "We cannot afford to bring down the funding gap to GDP from 3 percent to 2 percent, or 2.5 percent next year," he said.

The deficit-to-GDP ratio is a closely watched measure of how long a government can incur revenue collection shortfalls.

"We might have the same level of deficit next year," Recto said.

The inter-agency Development Budget and Coordinating Committee (DBCC) is set to revise all the country's macroeconomic assumptions this year and next due to worse-than-expected first-quarter results.

For 2010, the government earlier projected to incur a budget deficit of P173.3 billion, or 2 percent of GDP while a budget gap of 2.5 percent or P199.2 billion is expected for this year.

The new end-2009 target is higher than the previous projection of P177.2 billion, or 2.2 percent of GDP.

From January to April, the Department of Finance reported a P111.8-billion budget deficit due to lower revenue collections and increased spending. In the first four months last year, the budget gap stood at P25.8 billion.




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