INDIANAPOLIS - Indiana's unemployment rate dropped slightly to 9.9 percent in April, but analysts don't expect the glimmer of good news to last long.

Preliminary figures released Friday show the state's unemployment rate fell from the 10 percent seasonally adjusted rate reported for March.

Indiana's unemployment rate showed a similar small drop around this time last year, when the rate went from 5.4 percent in April 2008 to 5.3 percent in May 2008 before climbing toward the highest rates since the recession of the early 1980s.

Not statistically significant

April's decline in the state's jobless rate was so small that it is not statistically significant, said Teresa Voors, commissioner of the Indiana Department of Workforce Development. She warned that the figure doesn't reflect auto and steel industry layoffs announced in recent weeks.

"I expect we will see the effect of the automotive decline on Indiana's unemployment rate to a greater extent in the next few months," she said.

Recent layoff announcements could cost thousands of Indiana workers their jobs - and not just from plant shutdowns by General Motors and Chrysler.

Job cuts are being made across the state, with ArcelorMittal planning more than 1,000 layoffs from its steel mill in East Chicago, while Cummins Inc. is laying off about 700 workers in Columbus. Two northern Indiana auto parts factories say they will lay off more than 300 people, and a Lafayette-based manufacturer told nearly 800 workers who were laid off over the winter that it does not expect to recall them.

Expected declines in the auto industry and related businesses are one reason the state is likely to see its unemployment rate creep higher, said Bill Witte, an economist who is co-director of the Center for Econometric Model Research at Indiana University.

"It'll still be a while before we hit complete bottom," Witte said.

Witte estimates the unemployment rate could start to decline later this year.

State's rate higher

than national rate

Indiana's April unemployment rate of 9.9 percent was 1 percentage point higher than the national rate of 8.9 percent, but the state fared about the same as some of its neigh-

bors.

Ohio's rate was 10.2 percent, while Kentucky and Illinois were at 9.8 percent and 9.4 percent respectively. Michigan had the country's highest unemployment rate at 12.9 percent.

Indiana's seasonally adjusted data also show a decline in the state's overall labor force used to calculate the unemployment rate. Witte said that could be a sign that some people have given up looking for work.

Indiana data that was not seasonally adjusted painted a rosier economic picture as summer work such as construction and hospitality jobs became more plentiful.

The statewide unadjusted rate fell from 10.6 percent in March to 9.9 percent in April, although economists caution against comparing unadjusted figures month-to-month since summer-only jobs can skew results.

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