Jun. 16--There are all kinds of polls and surveys floating around. The ones I've been paying attention to recently center on the economy and the public's general mood about it.

Many mainstream surveys show most Americans aren't feeling good about the economy, particularly in the wake of bankruptcy filings by Chrysler and General Motors. Massive cuts by both auto-making giants have translated into job losses across the nation.

Right now, it is too early to tell whether or not the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is doing its job to prop up the economy. The initiative calls for pumping billions of dollars into public works projects as well as other initiatives to get consumers spending with the most attractive incentive coming in the form of a tax credit of $8,000 for first-time home buyers and individuals who have not owned a home for three years.

Some economists are saying signs the economy is finally starting to turn around are becoming more apparent.

One of those experts is Robert Stein, senior economist with First Trust Advisors, a Chicago-area based financial services company who spent some time in Washington D.C. most recently as assistant secretary for economic policy at the U.S. Treasury Department.

Stein, in a recent interview with The Post-Crescent, mentioned something to me that's important to keep in mind -- natural economic turnaround.

By that he meant that the U.S. economy by nature consumes. Americans buy goods, everything from electronics to homes.

In regards to the domestic vehicle sales market, Stein says there is just no way an economy that historically absorbs 16 million new vehicles annually can remain at a level of 9.5 million new sales annually.

The same goes for new home sales. Historically, Stein said between 900,000 and 1 million homes are sold annually, though the annual sales rate now is about 350,000, driven mostly by excess inventory, which now is estimated at about 2 million homes.

However, Stein said the 2 million home inventory is down from 4.5 million from just a couple of years ago, so when the inventory comes down, new home construction should start to ramp up. The only question is, how long will it take for the inventory to come down?

If you're in the market for a big-ticket purchase, like a car or home, right now is a great time to follow through. Interest rates are low, but lenders have tightened lending practices so you may be asked for higher down payments than in recent years.

Stein did say one thing that will be tough for many people to accept -- the turnaround won't be readily apparent right away. Companies likely will continue shedding costs, which means more job losses and consumers may remain hesitant to spend because of uncertainty surrounding long-term employment.

On another survey note, Manpower's recent employment outlook showed that in the Fox Cities, nearly 70 percent of participating companies in the survey said they were holding employment levels steady. If this truly is the case, maybe the recession's bottom has been reached and the climb back to better economy times already has begun.

Larry Avila: 920-993-1000, ext. 292, or lavila@postcrescent.com

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