Jun. 19--Recovery is on the horizon.

I know you might be pessimistic, given these epically bad times in Michigan -- the state's unemployment rate hit a heart-stopping 14.1% last month.

I also know this upbeat outlook is likely to give little comfort to those who have lost their homes, jobs and dignity during this crushing global recession.

But there are legitimate reasons to think the worst may truly, finally be behind us.

What's more, there is plenty of mounting data to suggest that a recovery might come on faster and stronger than anyone living in the doldrums, as we all have been, might believe.

First of all, two of Detroit's automakers have already hit rock bottom, which means there's nowhere to go but up.

The new Chrysler emerged from bankruptcy on June 10 and is already restarting its factories.

Despite legal challenges, the whole process took just 41 days, easing the way for GM to swiftly exit bankruptcy by summer's end, too.

But the real signs of hope are there in consumer confidence levels, which has been rebounding dramatically for the past three months now. After hitting an all-time low of 25.3 in February, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) has been going up, up, up: 26.9 in March, 40.8 in April and 54.9 in May.

V-shaped recovery ahead

That positive jump has led to one of the most promising -- and credible -- forecasts I have seen to date, from the global consultancy A.T. Kearney.

During a breakfast seminar at the Townsend in May, I was mesmerized by page 14 of a report entitled, "Crisis in the North American Automotive Industry: Weathering the Storm."

That particular page forecasts auto sales for the next five years, and it doesn't show a slow U-shaped recovery where we linger at the bottom for a while before crawling out of the barrel.

No, the best minds at A.T. Kearney -- who base their findings on rigorous studies of consumer confidence, vehicle affordability, credit availability and economic growth -- envision a sharp V-shaped recovery for the U.S. auto industry.

After plummeting from 16.2 million new car and truck sales to an estimated 9.8 million this year, A.T. Kearney predicts that a rapid recovery back to 16 million could occur by 2011.

--PDF: Download a copy of the report here

Looking at the chart, I wondered if this sharp recovery was too good to be true, especially since it seems like it would take a while to bounce back from today's high unemployment levels.

But Daniel Cheng, a vice president at A.T. Kearney assured me that the numbers had been stress-tested repeatedly, under a variety of scenarios.

Under A.T.