Jun. 20--Florida's unemployment rate broke a psychological barrier in May, entering double digits for the first time in 34 years.

Although Florida's economy could start to grow again early next year, experts say unemployment could stay near current levels for up to two years. Employers typically remain cautious about adding workers until they are sure things are really better.

At 10.2 percent, the state's May jobless rate was up from April's revised 9.7 percent, and was higher than the national rate of 9.4 percent.

In Miami-Dade, the rate jumped from 8.2 percent in April to 9.8 percent in May.

Florida's economic woes began with the real estate industry, as an oversupply of homes led to huge job losses in construction. Then it spread into related businesses such as banking and the mortgage industry before hitting almost everything else.

But this month's change in Miami-Dade's unemployment rate was so steep that a local economist said it could be a statistical fluke.

"I would be skeptical," said Tony Villamil, dean of the business school at St. Thomas University in Miami Gardens and former undersecretary of commerce under the first President Bush. "A month is not a trend, and it's a preliminary number, so it's subject to revision."

When dealing with smaller areas -- the survey results from a county versus a whole state, for instance -- statistics are more prone to error.

That's little consolation to job seekers who are finding it tough.

"I've applied to what seems like a hundred positions online and haven't heard back," said Cindy Keeran, who was seeking work at a Fort Lauderdale job fair on Tuesday.

She was laid off from her job as a corporate trainer about a year ago and has only been able to find temporary and contract work since.

She recently started applying for jobs outside her field, but still no luck.

"The other people who are applying to be tellers are bank managers," she said. "People who are one to two levels higher are willing to take positions one to two levels lower."

Unemployment is one of the recession's biggest sources of human pain, but an increase in the jobless rate doesn't contradict other signs that the downturn is nearing its conclusion.

That's because the unemployment rate is what economists call a "lagging" indicator, meaning it does not start to increase until the recession is well under way, and does not start to drop until the recovery is in full gear.

Economists are predicting modest growth in the size of Florida's economy, as measured by the total value of goods and services produced in the state, by early next year.