Jun. 21--The economy appears to be recovering from the worst recession since the Great Depression. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last week that the financial system is in "the early stages of repair."

However, a recovery is expected to be slow, tortuous and geographically uneven.

The following Midlands business experts were asked what they foresee for their companies, their industries and the economy in general through the rest of 2009 and into 2010. Companies declining to participate were Cabela's, the Buckle and Google.

Bruce Lauritzen, chairman, and Daniel O'Neill, president, First National of Nebraska

They expect 2009 and 2010 to be difficult years for the economy, including for Nebraska and Omaha.

Lauritzen said First National's profits were down 75 percent in 2008, and this year will be difficult as well.

"Omaha and the state have remained fairly unscathed compared with other areas." But the region's growth stopped and the last half of 2008 was "a very difficult time."

First National's loan volume has decreased. "Consumers and businesses began to husband their money and not continue to spend. We're dealing with a recession that is now in full bloom."

Of First National's problem loans, 85 percent are in its credit card business, which is nationwide but somewhat concentrated in the Midwest. The remaining 15 percent are in real estate and land development projects in Colorado, suburban Chicago and the Kansas City, Kan., area.

O'Neill said rising unemployment, which might peak at 10.5 percent next year, hurts the bank's credit card business because more people default on loans when they lose their jobs.

He believes the recession may be halfway over. Some business operators "are starting to give up," and he gets reports of layoffs and closings regularly.

Steve Martin, CEO of Blue Cross Blue Shield of Nebraska

Corporate bonds, which are issued by businesses to borrow money from investors, are starting to stabilize. "The overall nature of the credit crunch is starting to go away," which would restore stability to the financial transactions that underpin many business dealings.

The second phase will be when "consumers start loosening their pocketbooks a little."

Martin said Nebraska has not had as many layoffs as some other parts of the country, which indicates that the economy is not suffering as much. "Nebraska in general has been fairly even." Blue Cross in Nebraska has added employees over the past three years because its market share has grown and it has added new lines of business.

Martin favors reforming the nation's health care system but worries changes could come so fast they would disrupt the economy. If the government raises too high taxes to finance improvements, the financial burden on businesses could slow the recovery. And if payments to health care providers fall too rapidly, large employers such as hospitals might be forced to cut jobs and reduce services, he said.

Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

The head of the 246,000-employee holding company did not comment for this story, but he has said he doesn't know when the economy will turn.

He expects problems in the housing market to continue, and he said consumer spending has "fallen off a cliff."

Several of Berkshire's manufacturing, service and retail companies are struggling and had to cut jobs because of declining consumer demand, and Buffett said in February that more job cuts may be possible in 2010.

He also has warned that inflation might accompany a recovery, causing higher prices and discouraging economic growth.

The global economy was largely to blame for a 9.5 percent drop in Berkshire's revenue in the first three months of 2009.

But he also stuck to his views that the U.S. economy will recover because its free enterprise system excels at "unleashing human potential" and encouraging growth.

"I think Americans will do very, very well in the future," he said in a panel discussion last August. "Our children will live better than we do, and our grandchildren will live much better."

Bob Batt, vice president of Nebraska Furniture Mart

While curtailed consumer spending has hit this Berkshire Hathaway retailer, the furniture store's conservative approach has helped it weather what Batt called the furnishings industry's worst period in 30 years. The company, which operates three stores in Omaha, Kansas City, Kan., and Des Moines, has not had to lay off any of its 3,000 employees, he said.

"We have no debt.